The Wichita State Shockers were expected to run away and hide from the rest of the opposition in the program’s first year as a member of the American Athletic Conference. That didn’t turn out to be the case with Greg Marshall’s kids not catching fire till the tail end of the season. Even so, it all came down to a regular season finale at home against Cincinnati with the AAC title on the line. The Bearcats ended up taking them down and avenging a defeat incurred on their own floor a week earlier. With that, Cincinnati earned the tournament’s top seed with Wichita State, Houston and Tulsa rounding out the top-4.
American Athletic Conference Tournament Schedule
Don't miss the hardwood action from the Amway Center from Thursday, March 8, 2018 through Sunday, March 11 on ESPN2 and CBS. We'll have NCAA odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game of the American Athletic Conference Tournament.
First Round - Thursday, March 8th
No. 8 UConn vs No. 9 SMU, 12 p.m.
No. 5 Memphis vs No. 12 South Florida, 2 p.m.
No. 7 Temple vs No. 10 Tulane, 7 p.m.
No. 6 UCF vs No. 11 East Carolina, 9 p.m.
Quarterfinals - Friday, March 9th
TBD vs No. 1 Cincinnati, 12 p.m.
TBD vs No. 4 Tulsa, 2 p.m.
TBD vs No. 2 Wichita State, 7 p.m.
TBD vs No. 3 Houston, 9 p.m.
Semifinals - Saturday, March 10th
TBD at 1 p.m.
TBD at 3:30 p.m.
Championship - Sunday, March 11th
TBD at 3:30 p.m.
Odds Analysis
In being tabbed the No. 1 seed in the tournament, Cincinnati has been installed the odds on favorite to cut the nets down on Sunday by the oddsmakers at Bookmaker.eu. Mick Cronin’s kids are the -104 favorites to get the job done, and with it drawing the much more favorable path than any of the other contenders, they’re a pretty safe investment to at least qualify for the finals.
Unfortunately for SMU, it’s likely going to take the hardwood in Orlando without the services of Shake Milton whose fractured hand will keep him out of tourney play. With that, SMU’s string of partaking in the finals two of the last three seasons won’t be improved. Don’t waste your money hitting them at a +2517 return. Undermanned, they just don’t have the horses to compete with the best this conference has to offer.
If you’re hunting for dogs with teeth, UCF might just be the one to back. The Knights were in the midst of a solid campaign until B.J. Taylor went down with an injury. That paired with the season-ending injury to Tacko Fall took two of the team’s best players out of the equation for Johnny Dawkins. Taylor is back and Central Florida possesses one of the best scoring defenses in the conference as well as the country ( No. 3 ). It could be enough to spring them towards a couple of upsets.
Player to Watch
Gary Clark – When things are going well for the Bearcats, they’re destroying the opposition on the glass and limiting as many second chance points as possible. Cincinnati has long been known as being only a very good defensive club, but that’s not the case with this year’s version. Jacob Evans and his mates trot the nation’s No. 122 ranked scoring offense onto the floor that ranks No. 43 in efficiency per the current Pomeroy Ratings.
Much of the team’s success at that end of the floor has been due to its ability to clean the offensive glass, and most of those accolades fall upon Clark who checks in as the team’s most dominant rebounder. He averages 8.2 caroms per contest, and as he goes, the Bearcats go. Only Duke owns a higher offensive rebounding percentage than that of Cincinnati. If any team is to take the top seed down, it’ll have to contend with Clark and company on the glass. If they fail to do that, they won’t be advancing.
Free NCAA ATS Picks
Cincinnati’s toughest opponent en route to the finals will be in the form of either No. 5 seed Memphis or No. 4 seed Tulsa. They humiliated the Tigers in the regular season winning and covering both games, but got a game matchup from the Golden Hurricane whom they defeated 82-74 but failed to cover against as decided 17-point favorites. If those two do manage to lock horns again, don’t expect the second go round to have nearly as many points. The game closed with a total of 133.5 yet 156 points dented the scoreboard! Bottom line, the Bearcats should waltz their way into the finals.
The bottom half of the AAC Tournament bracket looks to be much tougher in my opinion. Throw ECU out the window, and you got four teams that each can make a run to the finals. Temple’s come up with some big wins to date, while UCF plays a feisty brand of ball. In the end, it will likely be Wichita State and Houston in the semis, and I lean towards Rob Gray and the Cougars in that matchup. They split with the Shockers in the regular season and enter the tournament winners in eight of their last nine ( 6-2-1 ATS ).
The two meetings between Houston and Cincinnati were heavily contested. The Cougars held a 40-37 lead at the ‘Natti before fizzling out in the second half and falling 80-70 as 9.5-point underdogs. They avenged that defeat in the second go round coming back to beat the Bearcats 67-62 as 2-point dogs after trailing by five points at the break. Should these programs ultimately square off a third time in the finals, I’d love to own some shares of Houston at +365 to guarantee myself a profit with some hedging.
NCAA Odds: Houston 68, Cincinnati 67 in AAC Tournament Championship Game
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