Betting Analysis: Purdue vs. Kansas

2017-Midwest-Sweet-16-2-Purdue-vs-Kansas-betting-Odds

A pair of regular season champions that lost the first game in their respective conference tournaments will close the action out in the Midwest Region on Thursday night when the No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers and No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks meet up on the hardwood for the first time since 2012. Both squads are littered with top notch talent like Caleb Swanigan and Josh Jackson, so this region semifinal is certain to deliver!

Don't miss this Sweet 16 showdown from the Sprint Center in Kansas City at 9:39 ET on Thursday, March 23. Catch every moment of the game live on CBS.

Sweet 16 Odds at BookMaker.eu

Purdue Boilermakers +4.5
Kansas Jayhawks -4.5
Over/Under 157

Odds Analysis

With the Jayhawks playing 30 minutes away from Lawrence, they certainly hold the proximity advantage. With that, linemakers opened them up as 4 point favorites to send the Boilermakers packing. Only 24 percent of the tickets written since the open are backing Purdue, so Kansas was immediately moved up to 4.5 point semi-neutral court favorites.

The betting public expects to see some points hit the scoreboard in this one with the 156 point opening total already up to 157 even though only 56 percent of the action has backed the over. All four games these teams partook in through last weekend cashed over bettor’s tickets.

How They Got Here

Before taking to the hardwood in Milwaukee, the Boilermakers suffered an early exit in the Big Ten tournament after they failed to close Michigan out at the free throw line and allowed the Wolverines to send the game into overtime. They went on to lose in the extra session 74-70.

Matt Painter’s kids got a major run for their money in the first round against a Vermont squad that entered the game winners of 21 straight. Only up one at the half, Purdue wore the Catamounts out enough to pull away and secure the 80-70 win and cover. It looked to be déjà vu for the Boilers in the second round against Iowa State whom they let back in the game after holding a 19 point second half lead. They did manage to hit their free throws this time around to escape with the 80-76 win and cover as 1 point favorites.

The loss to TCU in the quarters of the Big 12 tournament came as quite the surprise. However, you must take into account that Josh Jackson was suspended for that game. As it turns out, the time off did the Jayhawks some good evidenced by Bill Self’s kids going out and destroying their first two opponents in the NCAA Tournament.

Up first to feel the wrath was UC Davis whom they jumped on early and never looked back. When the smoke from all the fireworks KU ignited cleared, the Aggies found themselves on the wrong end of a 100-62 beat down. That win and cover was then followed up with an even more impressive shellacking of Tom Izzo’s Spartans in the second round. Sparty hung in there for the first 30 minutes, but wore down late allowing Devonte Graham to take advantage from beyond the arc.

Comparable Games of Note

These teams last matched up against one another in the 2013 NCAA Tournament when the Robbie Hummel led Boilermakers gave the Jayhawks a run for their money, but eventually succumbed and fell 63-60 as 8 point dogs. No player on either team remains on either roster.

The Boilermakers and Jayhawks have three common opponents from this season with them being Indiana, Nebraska and Iowa State. The only one that truly matters are the Cyclones with Indiana a much different team than the one KU lost to in overtime the first game of the season. Purdue was up big on the Clones before letting them back in it. Kansas went into Ames and scored the hard fought 76-72 win as 3.5 point favorites, but then fell to the Cyclones at home in overtime 92-89 as 10 point favorites.

Purdue had been one and done in the NCAA Tournament each of the last two seasons before just making it past the first weekend. The last time the program made it to the Sweet 16 it got pounded by Duke 70-57 as 8 point underdogs.

Kansas has qualified for the Big Dance in 28 straight seasons, and made it to the Sweet 16 in five of the last seven tournaments. It’s last appearance occurred last season when it buried the Maryland Terrapins 79-63 as 5.5 point chalk before falling to eventual national champs Villanova in the Elite 8.

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