Betting Analysis: South Carolina vs. Gonzaga

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The Gonzaga Bulldogs were expected to be here after being anointed the West region’s No. 1 seed. The South Carolina Gamecocks most definitely were not! In fact, many had the East region No. 7 seed exiting the Big Dance in the first round against Marquette. Be that as it may, each team now finds itself playing in a do-or-die tilt with a shot at marching on to partake in each program’s first ever championship game appearance.

Don't miss this Final Four showdown from the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, AZ at 6:09 ET on Saturday, April 1. Catch every moment of the game live on CBS.

Final Four Odds at BookMaker.eu
South Carolina Gamecocks +7
Gonzaga Bulldogs -7
Over/Under 138

Odds Analysis

We’ve seen a bit of reverse line movement in the betting line of this matchup. Gonzaga originally opened up as 6.5 point favorites, but that number has been bumped up to -7 even though only 36 percent of the tickets written have sided with the Mark Few’s Bulldogs.

The total opened at a flat 138 and has remained ever since opening. As good as both the Cocks and Zags defenses have looked all season and in this tournament, it comes as no surprise to see no movement whatsoever.

How They Got Here

It’s been completely one-sided or competitive until the bitter end throughout South Carolina’s march to the Final Four. The first-round matchup with Marquette was close through 20 minutes, but quickly turned into a laugher over the final 20 minutes before SC marched on with the 93-73 win. The second-round tilt with Duke was all Blue Devils through a half, but Frank Martin’s troops came out like giant killers in the second half outscoring the Dookies 65-51 to pull out the shocking 88-81 outright win and cover.

The game against Baylor was nip and tuck through the first 10 minutes of the first half, but an 18-0 run turned it into a beating that ultimately saw South Carolina punch its first-ever ticket into the Elite Eight with a runaway 70-50 triumph. The Cocks successfully pulled off their second comeback in the second half of a game when it battled back from a seven-point deficit to send the SEC rival Florida Gators home on the short end of a 77-70 defeat.

The Zags run to the programs first Final Four appearance has been costly for those that backed them on the betting line. The first non-cover occurred in the first-round against South Dakota State whom they only defeated 66-46 as 23 point favorites. They only led that game at the break by four points. They then looked like the team that annihilated all that stood in their way versus Northwestern early on bolting out to a 34-12 lead, but then needed to hold on for dear life in the second half when the Wildcats made their run.

In a defensive grinder versus West Virginia, Gonzaga hit some big shots late and was able to withstand a barrage of 3-point attempts that would have tied the game to hold on for the 61-58 win. Depending upon where you bought in, the game was either lost or pushed. Nigel Williams-Goss and company saved their best for last versus Xavier who proved to be no match. The team drained half of its 24 shots from beyond the arc and limited the Musketeers to a 35.5 percent shooting effort a game removed from shooting nearly 53 percent against Arizona. It’s likely no team remaining in the field would have beaten Gonzaga in that game.

Comparable Games of Note

This game will mark the very first time either of these basketball programs competed in the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament. It’s also the first ever meeting between both teams on the college hardwood. With Frank Martin and Mark Few each getting the best out of their respective players, this game is certain to deliver.

These teams have played one common opponent this season. That being the Florida Gators. We all just saw the Cocks bounce their conference rivals from the tourney on Sunday in a seven-point win, but they also split the regular season meetings winning a grinder at home 57-53 as 2 point favorites, and then falling in Gainesville 81-66 as 7.5 point dogs.

Gonzaga toppled Florida in the semifinal game of the AdvoCare Invitational by rallying from an 11-point deficit to score the 77-72 win and cover as 3.5 point favorites. The Zags beat them on the glass 34-31 and drained 51.7 percent of their shots compared to the Gators shooting less than 37 percent from the field.

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