If you pegged the Xavier Musketeers to make a deep run in the 2017 NCAA Tournament, you’re likely in the money in all bracket contests entered and up some green after backing them as underdogs through the first two rounds. They enter the Sweet 16 with the longest odds of any team to win it all at +7000, and find themselves decided underdogs once again versus the No. 2 seed Arizona Wildcats for Thursday night’s tilt in Cali.
Don't miss this Sweet 16 showdown from the SAP Center in San Jose at 9:09 ET on Thursday, March 23. Catch every moment of the game live on TBS.
Sweet 16 Odds at BookMaker.eu
Xavier Musketeers +7 -105
Arizona Wildcats -7 -115
Over/Under 144.5
Odds Analysis
With the X-Men winning their first two games of this tournament outright, it comes as no surprise to see the betting public leaning their way since the betting line for this win or go home tilt opened. Arizona was originally installed 7.5 point favorites to advance to the Elite 8, but 54 percent of the betting action moved them to -7 at -115 juice. Had Zona not pushed on the closing line versus North Dakota, they’d invade San Jose having covered six straight.
Though the Wildcats limited St. Mary’s to just 60 points in the second round, they allowed an average of 78.9 points in their previous four games. With Xavier just dropping 91 points on Florida State, the betting public expects some points to hit the board with the total bet up to 144.5 from the 143.5 opener. Xavier played to five straight low scorers before trouncing the Noles, so if leaning towards the under, sit back and wait to see if the line continues to climb.
How They Got Here
Xavier was ranked within the top-25 at the beginning of the season, and got out to a tremendous start winning 13 of its first 15 games. Tragedy struck at the end of January when Edmond Sumner went down with a season-ending knee injury. Though the team won their next three games without him, it went on to drop six straight before winning its regular season finale at DePaul.
Firmly on the bubble entering the Big East tournament, the Musketeers needed to make some noise. They did just that reaching the semifinals by taking care of the Blue Demons and snagging a huge win against the Butler Bulldogs. In doing so, they were granted the No. 11 seed in the West and went on to embarrass both Maryland and FSU en route to returning to the Sweet 16 for the third time in the last six years.
Arizona won a share of the Pac-12 regular season title with Oregon even though it got destroyed in its lone run-in with the Ducks in Eugene. Sean Miller’s troops compiled a 32-4 overall record and won 16 of 18 overall within the conference. The Cats ripped right through the Pac-12 tournament taking care of business both straight up and against the spread versus Colorado, UCLA and then Oregon in the title game. Take note however, the Ducks played that one without Chris Boucher.
Their Big Dance run started with a 100-82 pounding of North Dakota that either cashed, pushed or lost for those that backed them depending upon where they bought into the market. St. Mary’s proved to be a worthy adversary in the second round through the first 20 minutes, but it was all Cats in the second stanza who went on to outscore the Gaels 40-30 to secure the 69-60 win and cover as 5 point favorites. A big hit to bookies and sportsbooks across the world who badly needed the Gaels to at the very least cover.
Comparable Games of Note
This exact same scenario played out the last times these teams ran up against one another. It occurred in the Sweet 16 of the 2015 tourney and the Cats found themselves installed hefty 11.5 point favorites against an Xavier team that had both J.P. Macura and Trevon Bluiett on its roster. The Musketeers played even through the first half, but the Wildcats pulled away over the final 20 minutes to secure the 68-60 win and non-cover. The 128 points combined to go under the 135.5 point total.
Each of these teams ran up against Colorado and Butler this season. Xavier dropped a 68-66 decision in Boulder as 1.5 point favorites, while Zona swept the season rivalry beating the Buffaloes 82-73 in a non-covering win at home and followed it up with a 92-78 win and cover in the Pac-12 tournament. The Musketeers went 1-2 straight up and against the spread in their three run-ins with the Bulldogs, while Arizona dropped a 69-65 decision in the Continental Tire invitational on a neutral court; without Allonzo Trier.
Xavier has had some recent success reaching the Sweet 16, but 2008 was the last time it took another step forward into the Elite 8. It’s five straight Sweet Sixteen losses and counting for the program who last fell to these same Wildcats the last time they qualified. Since Sean Miller left Xavier to take over the reins in Tucson back in 2009, the Wildcats have reached the Sweet 16 six times. They went on to play in the Elite 8 only three times with the program still looking to reach the Final Four under Miller for the very first time.
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