If you want to have a good chance to make money during March Madness and you don’t want to have to do a ton of research then there is one simple thing you can do, and that is take underdogs. History has shown that taking the points in the NCAA Tournament has been the way to go. The public loves to bet marquee teams and they like to bet favorites, and that means betting March Madness underdogs is usually profitable.
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March Madness Underdogs
There are a lot of interesting statistics when it comes to betting the NCAA Tournament, but for now we just want to keep things simple. We know that just taking the points all the time is not a bad way to go, but we also want to look at some numbers for filling out the March Madness Bracket. Cashing tickets is great, but with the bracket we have to pick the outright winners, so we need to know how often underdogs win outright.
Underdogs of 1 or 1.5 points win about 48% of the time. There is not much value in betting that small of an underdog, as you are better off betting the moneyline, but it does show that you can pick those underdogs on your bracket. Underdogs of 2 or 2.5 points win about 43% of the time. Underdogs of 3 and 3.5 points win about 38% of the time. Underdogs of 4 and 4.5 points win about 36% of the time.
It gets a little bit dicey when we look at bigger underdogs. Getting 5 or 5.5 points or 6 or 6.5 points have the underdogs winning about 28% of the time. That number goes down to 23% for 7 and 7.5 point underdogs. The numbers drop about one percentage point for each number up to 18. Underdogs of 18 or 18.5 points win about 4% of the time. When the line goes up to 19 or more, the percentage drops to less than 2%. So what do these numbers tell us? You want to be focused on picking some underdogs on your March Madness bracket who are 4.5-point dogs or less.
One thing that has to be stated about March Madness underdogs is that sometimes the seeds and the pointspreads do not match. For example, let’s say you have a 7-10 matchup where the No. 10 seed is listed as the favorite in March Madness odds. If the No. 10 seed wins the game it is an upset in terms of seeding, but it is not an upset versus the betting line. Also keep in mind that the 8-9 matchup is virtually a toss-up, so don’t consider a No. 9 seed winning as an upset.
Another thing to really keep in mind when betting underdogs in the NCAA Tournament is that you should be focused on the first three rounds. That means the first round where you have 32 games, the second round where you have 16 games and the Sweet Sixteen where there are eight games. History has shown that the upsets don’t happen nearly as often in the Elite Eight, Final Four and the title game.
Many people will look at a variety of handicapping strategies, statistics and information when it comes to betting the NCAA Tournament. Many of those numbers will have value, but sometimes it can be a little bit overwhelming when you are betting the games or filling out your bracket. If you want to keep things simple, and oftentimes in sports betting keeping things simple is your best bet, just take the points in March Madness betting.
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