A top-20 showdown is set to tip in Spokane as No. 10 Gonzaga battles No. 19 Arizona, who will be without 7-foot center Kaleb Tarczewski. That’s a big blow for the ‘Cats against these Bulldogs, who will bring their best in redemption for last year’s overtime loss in the desert.
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HOW THE ARIZONA WILDCATS WILL COVER THE SPREAD
The Wildcats are 5-1 with a loss to Providence in their first game without Tarczewski. Arizona had a season-high 21 turnovers and was playing in back-to-back games after struggling to hold off Santa Clara in overtime as a 23-point favorite.
In their recent win over Boise State, the Wildcats had two key players foul out and 17-more turnovers. That’s an issue facing the huge front line of Gonzaga, as senior forward Ryan Anderson can hold his own with 16 points and 10 rebounds per game, but the Wildcats must get better showings from senior guard Gabe York as Gonzaga will pack the paint more.
Arizona does have a deeper bench, but with Tarczewski out the Wildcats may elect to play more small ball, but it will be tougher against Gonzaga who also defends the perimeter so well. Arizona is one of the Pac-12’s top teams again with plenty of quickness. They are top-two in the country in offensive steal percentage and will need more of those and additional foul shots to beat the Bulldogs.
HOW THE GONZAGA BULLDOGS WILL COVER THE SPREAD
The Zags feature one of the biggest and premier front courts in the country led by Kyle Wiltjer. The cerebral senior pours in nearly 19 points per game on 50 percent shooting with solid rebounding and can stretch the floor as he takes nearly six three-pointers per game. He had 20 points in the opening ten minutes last game against Washington State, and can take over a game.
Senior 7-footter Przemek Karnowski is a beast in the block but he did not play in the last game against Washington State due to back spasms, so check his status. Domantas Sabonis has a great feel and motor to complete the big three inside. These three bigs will have a larger advantage in this match-up as Arizona plays without their senior 7-footer Kaleb Tarczewski, who is out for at least a month with a recent foot injury.
With their three top guards gone from last season, the Bulldogs rely more on their strength inside and their new sophomore starting guards are fitting in with Josh Perkins shooting 46 percent from the floor at point guard. The Zags perimeter defense has been strong while holding opponents to a nation-low 21 percent shooting from the arc and just 38 percent from the floor to rank top-5 in the country.
With Arizona’s offense not as efficient or shooting as strong as last year’s team and now without Tarczewski, the Zags should control and pack the paint with the Wildcats poor outside shooting hitting just 28 percent from downtown thus far this season.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Gonzaga is 5-1 with a lone 1-point loss to No. 25 Texas A&M in the Bahamas. They have beaten top-20 UCONN and will be eager to atone for last year’s 66-63 overtime loss at Arizona when both teams were ranked in the top-10.
Gonzaga 70, Arizona 62
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