The Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans actually have one of the best records in America, but many are going to call into question their quality of opponent in the Sun Belt this year. The Purdue Boilermakers made it all the way to the Big Ten Tournament Final, and they played as good of a game against Michigan State when they got there as anyone else has in recent weeks.
That's why many believe this game is a romp waiting to happen in the Midwest Region.
College Basketball Odds at BookMaker.eu
Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans +8
Purdue Boilermakers –8
HOW THE ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK TROJANS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
This game is all about tempo for UALR. The Trojans have done a really nice job all year long of slowing games down with their 1-3-1 zone, including way back in the beginning of the season when they beat San Diego State 49-43 at Viejas. Purdue isn't going to be willing to rush this game all that much, and that'll play right into the hands of the Sun Belt champs.
Still, some offense has to come from somewhere, and it isn't likely to come in the paint against Isaac Haas and A.J. Hammons.
This isn't a huge three-point shooting team, but there are weapons there for sure. Marcus Johnson Jr. and Josh Hagins are both excellent three-point shooters at 46.1 percent and 37.7 percent respectively, and they'll likely have to combine for at least 40 points in this game to give Little Rock a shot at the upset.
HOW THE PURDUE BOILERMAKERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
This is an interesting matchup for the Boilermakers. UALR has a couple bigs in Lis Shoshi and Mareik Isom who actually will have the ability to body with their centers in the paint, and both have proven their willingness to step outside and defend the perimeter if need be against someone like Caleb Swanigan as well.
The only way to break a 1-3-1 zone is to ultimately shoot teams out of it, but this isn't really the forte for Purdue. There isn't an elite three-point shooter on this team, and though Vince Edwards does go through some stretches where he can't miss, he also put up some wild shots against Michigan State towards the end of the game that makes us wonder if he's ready for the big time as just a sophomore.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
You probably get where we're going with this one. The Boilermakers did a fine job getting this far, but we wonder if that run in the Big Ten Tournament took too much out of them. They're going to be playing relatively early on Thursday against a hungry team out to prove that their 29-4 record was no joke.
The matchup is just a bad one as we see it as well. Purdue might not have the legs to kick UALR out of this slow pace, and playing at altitude won't help out either. The Boilermakers only went 5-5 SU and ATS on the road this year, and their only road wins in the calendar year came against Nebraska, Minnesota and Rutgers. This won't be a legit road game, but it'll feel like it if this game is close in the second half.
The Boilers got bounced out of the first round of the dance last year, and we think they're set to do so again in 2016.
Arkansas-Little Rock 65, Purdue 61
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