Returning to an all too familiar place, the Kentucky Wildcats will go for their third consecutive SEC title on Sunday. Not familiar with the pageantry are the three freshmen studs who led the Wildcats to another tournament championship game. And it’s likely the only one for them as the one-and-dones look to send KU to the Big Dance on a winning note. The Arkansas Razorbacks will seek a better performance against UK than their 26-point loss back in January in the only regular season meeting.
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The Hogs won for the eighth time in nine games with their semifinal win over Vanderbilt, easily covering the 3.5-point spread in their 76-62 win. It was a much difference performance than their opening game squeaker with sixth-seeded Mississippi, where Arkansas escaped with a 73-72 win. Over that nine-game span, the Hogs are 7-2 ATS while they’ve cashed the under in four of their last five games, including both tournament contests.
The only team hotter than Arkansas is Kentucky, who escaped their semifinal game with Alabama to advance to another championship tilt. The Wildcats won their 10th straight game by defeating the Tide 79-74, but they were exposed down low, getting slaughtered in the paint. UK failed to cover the 10.5-point line and will be the favorite in this one. The line could be expanded due to Kentucky’s 97-71 win during the regular season, a game where UK was a 17.5-point favorite.
Last Meeting
It wasn’t Arkansas’ finest moment and hopefully the Hogs learned a few things from their 97-71 loss in Lexington two months ago. The game started well enough for the Hogs, who had a lead midway through the opening 20 minutes. However, they couldn’t contain Kentucky’s freshmen and the game got away from them in the second half. De’Aaron Fox, Malik Monk and Bam Adebayo all scored double-figures for the Cats, with Fox going for 27 while being unstoppable at times.
There may also be some carryover from a testy moment in the game when Fox and Jaylen Barford were each slapped with a technical. Barford stepped on Isaiah Briscoe as the UK forward lay on the ground after taking a charge. Fox intervened and tensions rose. That seemed to spark the Cats, who outscored the Hogs 56-33 in the second half.
Key Stat
Four of Kentucky’s five starters average better than 13 points per game and the team is the fifth-highest scoring in the country at 86.1 per game. The numbers are boosted by exceptional field goal shooting with the Cats hitting 48 percent of their shots. But the Cats have proven they can win games when the offense isn’t clicking. They’ve failed to reach the 80-point mark in six straight games and are averaging 73.6 points in that span.
While the offense has sputtered, the defense has picked up the slack. In the same six-game stretch, the Cats have surrendered just 392 points and allowed just one team, Alabama in the semifinals, to score at least 70 points in a game.
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Kentucky is scary enough when they’re not playing great defense, and now that they’ve picked it up on that end of the floor, they’re even more of a force. Arkansas will attempt to use the blowout loss to the Wildcats earlier in the year as motivation. The Cats will use it as inspiration. Kentucky is the class of the SEC and it was proved all season long. There was a lull in the middle of the season, but the kids have picked it up.
And now that the spotlight is shining brightest, the kids, who are looking to raise their stock for this year’s NBA Draft, will be performing at the next level. Fox, Monk and Adebayo are top talents and will carry the Wildcats while guys like Mychal Mulder and Derek Willis provide solid senior leadership. I see the Wildcats winning this one by double figures for another SEC Tournament title.
College Basketball Odds: Kentucky 81, Arkansas 67
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