We haven't even completed the college basketball regular season yet, and already we're on the verge of seeing a truly maddening upset. The Stetson Hatters have never been to March Madness, and after a 10-21 regular season, no one figured they stood a chance to change that this year. They've still got a huge hurdle to overcome against the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles, but just the fact that they're one win away from the dance is remarkable and why we all love this time of year.
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HOW THE STETSON HATTERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Hatters really fit the mold of a team which can get hot in conference tournaments. They've been playing in the Atlantic Sun Tournament with a bit of swagger, flying up and down the court and playing every possession like it's their last.
Offensively, we know that Stetson can do the job. Derick Newton has been massive in this tournament with a pair of 20+ point games, and he just couldn't miss from beyond the arc, going 4-for-5 against Lipscomb in the A-Sun semis on Thursday night.
The Hatters are 20-of-44 from beyond the arc in this tournament to date, and they're going to have no choice but to keep up with some threes. Florida Gulf Coast is the far more talented team for sure, but the three-pointer has been the great equalizer thus far and will have to be again in this one.
HOW THE FLORIDA GULF COAST EAGLES CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Eagles have to be the more physical of these two teams in order to cover. They're going to be expected to win this one relatively comfortably even though this is a conference final, especially with the game being played on their home court.
Stetson doesn't have a player in its rotation bigger than 6-foot-7, and that should open up a ton of possibilities for Marc-Eddy Norelia, who plays a lot bigger than his 6-foot-8 frame suggests.
Norelia had two really big games against the Hatters this year, accounting for 45 points and 19 rebounds in the two efforts. He didn't play much in the second half of the first game thanks to the fact that the duel was a blowout, but when he was out there, he was the most unstoppable man on the floor. Anything less than a repeat performance out of him would be disappointing.
FGCU made a name for itself a couple years ago by playing fast and dunking all over its opposition in the dance. The Eagles should be doing the same in this game, especially against an overmatched and undersized foe if they want to dance again.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
There's a point that all magical runs come to an end in March, and we're afraid for Stetson that run is going to end here in south Florida.
For as well as the Hatters have played, they haven't taken on either of the best teams in the Atlantic Sun yet, and they're going to have to contend with the team which just crushed the big favorite of this tourney, North Florida on Thursday night. If the Eagles can dominate in the paint against the Hatters the same way they did in the first two meetings, we just don't see the visitors putting up enough of a fight to pull off this upset.
Don't let the 80-73 loss for FGCU to Stetson on the road a couple weeks ago fool you; this game shouldn't end up being all that close.
Florida Gulf Coast 83, Stetson 64
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Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook! The matchup between the Stetson Hatters and Florida Gulf Coast Eagles will go down Sunday, March 6, 2016 at 7:00 p.m. ET at Alico Arena. The matchup will be televised live on ESPN2.
