Not satisfied with the Big 12 regular season and tournament championship, the Kansas Jayhawks are looking at the bigger picture. The team is focused, riding a 14-game winning streak into the NCAA Tournament, and will look to buck a trend of early exits when they take on No. 16 Austin Peay in Thursday’s first round.
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Kansas Jayhawks -26
Austin Peay Governors +26
Over/Under: 152
HOW THE AUSTIN PEAY GOVERNORS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Governors stunned everyone by winning four games in four days to capture the Ohio Valley Conference tournament championship as the No. 8 seed and claim the league’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Underdogs all season, Austin Peay has peaked at the most opportune time with a run through the OVC tourney to give them six straight wins overall, moving their record to a game above .500 for the first time all season. It’s a burst of momentum needed to compete with the bad boys of the Big 12.
A big reason for the Governors late season charge has been the play of guard Jared Savage. He entered the OVC tournament with modest averages of 6.5 points across 19.5 minutes, but exploded for 16.8 points and 5.5 rebounds in 35 minutes per game while hitting 19 of 34 from three-point range.
Chris Horton is Austin Peay’s only regular rotation player taller than 6’6” and he’s surrounded by guards and wings. If the perimeter shots fall, the Governors have a chance to stay close. If not, it’ll be a long day.
HOW THE KANSAS JAYHAWKS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Jayhawks have had one of their most successful years ever, ending with their first conference tournament title in three years in the midst of a 30-win campaign. But to coach Bill Self, none of that matters now.
Kansas will be a motivated bunch. It hasn’t made the Sweet 16 since its run to the national championship game in the 2011-12 season, encountering first-weekend exits in each of the past two tournaments.
Forwards Perry Ellis and Landen Lucas will have a huge advantage down low against the undersized Governors, who boast one regular with the height to defend adequately. Ellis, especially, should have his way in the post.
The backcourt of Wayne Selden, Frank Mason and Devonte’ Graham are far superior athletes and will look to push the tempo against a team without a lot of depth. Kansas can’t be caught looking ahead to a second-round game; that would be problematic.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Since punching their ticket on Mar. 5, the Governors have had plenty of time to rest up and get refreshed. They’ll need all that energy against a focused and determined Kansas squad. Austin Peay has already pulled off an improbable postseason run in March and they’re hoping for more. However, playing beyond Thursday is unlikely. The Jayhawks are more talented and much deeper. They also have a huge advantage in the post against an undersized Austin Peay group. Ellis will have his way down low and the Jayhawks should win the game handily. But, as we saw against Baylor in the Big 12 semis, Kansas reserves can make it interesting. Should the Jayhawks get a comfortable lead and Self decide to rest his regulars, that opens the door for the Governors to cover the 26-point spread.
Kansas 84, Austin Peay 64
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Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook! The matchup between the Austin Peay Governors and Kansas Jayhawks will go down Thursday, March 17, 2016 at 4 p.m. ET at the Wells Fargo Center. The matchup will be televised live on TNT.
