Neither the Baylor Bears nor the Iowa State Cyclones have a shot of running down the Kansas Jayhawks for league honors. What both sides do however have a shot at pulling off is improving their placement in the upcoming Big 12 Tournament pecking order. That’s what both Johnathan Motley and Deonte Burton will attempt to do when they lead their respective clubs into battle against one another for the second time this season.
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When it’s said and done, the Bears will have nobody to blame but themselves for being unable to chase KU down in the standings. They held a lead at halftime in their trip to Lawrence before giving the game away in the second half, and then pissed away a six point lead with under two minutes remaining last weekend to fall 67-65 at home. Though the club bounced back on Super Tuesday with a 60-54 win over Oklahoma, the six point spread wasn’t enough to cover. They’ll invade Ames losers of three straight to the line makers, but own a 5-3 record against the spread when on the true road.
Save for the aforementioned Jayhawks, there hasn’t been another team hotter in the Big 12 than that of the Cyclones. Since dropping a tough one in Austin a game removed from snapping Kansas’s 51-game home win streak, Monte Morris and company have gone on to win and cover four straight. They return home off an exhilarating 82-80 overtime win in Lubbock looking to build upon their 10-3 straight up and 6-4 against the spread records when playing in front of the Hilton Coliseum faithful.
Matchup to Watch
The Bears hold an extreme advantage on the glass in this matchup. Iowa State owns a -2.4 rebounding margin while Baylor ranks No. 20 in the country at +6.6. Deonte Burton is the Cyclones leading rebounder with 6.6 per game, but was held in check in the first meeting being held to four overall. Morris actually stepped up to lead ISU on the glass with seven rebounds, but it wasn’t nearly enough with Baylor going on to win the battle of the boards 43-26. For the Clones to have a shot at evening the season series, they’ll have to find a way to hang in the rebounding battle.
Last Meeting
Motley had a huge game in the first go round scoring 13 points and ripping down 12 rebounds to help lead his squad to the decisive advantage in the battle for the boards. That said, Baylor was only able to squeak out a 65-63 win and failed to cover as hefty 9 point favorites. Thirteen turnovers compared to the Cyclones five gave it no shot of covering the number. Also allowing Nazareth Mitrou-Long and company to knock down 10 off 22 3 points attempts did them no favors either.
Baylor has taken each of the last five meetings between these programs and covered three of those games. The over had cashed in the previous four meetings before the team’s played to a low scorer that went under the 137.5 closing total by nearly 10 points. Baylor’s won outright as decided Hilton dogs the last two seasons.
Free College Basketball ATS Pick
Though Baylor will enter this tilt ranked, Iowa State deserves to be the favored side. It’s been playing some exceptional ball of late, and looks to be the only side gearing up for the madness March is about to bring. Baylor simply just doesn’t know how to close games. It’s dropped two of its last three on the Big 12 road, and though it will likely dominate on the glass once again, I don’t foresee it keeping its win streak intact against the fast-charging Cyclones.
Burton was limited by foul trouble in the first meeting and was only on the court for 17 minutes. Don’t look for that to be the case this time around with the game at home. I expect him to have a big game that helps propel his squad to their fifth straight win and cover.
College Basketball Odds: Iowa State 74, Baylor 70
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