The Big XII season gets underway in a huge manner on the first Saturday of the new year. The Kansas Jayhawks, the favorites to win the conference this year, will take on one of the big time challengers, the Baylor Bears.
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HOW THE BAYLOR BEARS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The big question we have for the Bears is whether they're going to be able to work out their road problems. They played two Power 5 teams on the road in the non-conference portion of the schedule, and they were beaten up by both Oregon and Texas A&M. That's not a good omen heading into the Phog.
Taurean Prince and Rico Gathers combine for over 30 points per game between them, but in their two games on the road, they've combined for 19 and 16 points respectively. That just isn't going to cut it in this game. Clearly, these two have to have bigger games than their averages, not worse games if there's any chance to avoid getting run right out of Allen Fieldhouse.
The Bears have some good guards, but they are going to be overmatched in this game by the Kansas guards for sure. Al Freeman, Lester Medford and Ishmail Wainwright are good for maybe 30 points between them, but scoring isn't going to end up being the crucial key. It's just about not getting dominated outside the perimeter and overmatched by Kansas on both sides of the ball.
HOW THE KANSAS JAYHAWKS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Outside of a game against Michigan State, the Jayhawks have basically been perfect. They've really hit their stride these last three games, covering games against Oregon State, Montana and San Diego State. Kansas played a strong non-conference schedule that wasn't too much of a challenge for it. This is a comparable game to duels we've seen KU play against teams like San Diego State, Vanderbilt and UCLA.
Where Kansas has overwhelmed teams this year is in its backcourt. Frank Mason and Devonte' Graham are both point guards who are on the floor at the same time. That not only means that it's impossible to put pressure on the ball when the Jayhawks are in half court offensive sets, but it's really easy to cough the ball up when these two are at the top of a 2-3 zone on the perimeter as well. Graham and Mason are combining for 3.7 steals per game, and though there isn't a specific stat on how many points those steals directly lead to, we've seen quick hands transition into layups or dunks time and time again this season.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
For our money, Kansas has the best team in America this year. We love the guards in the backcourt, and we love that they can both act like real point guards because Wayne Selden Jr. and Perry Ellis are both such efficient scorers who can pour in buckets from anywhere on the court.
The Bears might end up winning 12 games in this conference, but until they prove to us that they can win a big game on the road, we aren't buying in. Sure, this Baylor squad was good on the road a season ago, and perhaps that's what it evolves into this time around as well. Still, with Gathers and Prince struggling so badly in big games this early in the year, we can't be optimistic.
The Jayhawks won when these two got it on a year ago in the Phog 74-64, and we think there's a relatively similar final score coming on Saturday afternoon.
Kansas 77, Baylor 66
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Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here, so start betting with BookMaker today! The Baylor Bears and Kansas Jayhawks will square off Saturday, January 2, 2016, at 4:00 p.m. ET at Phog Allen Fieldhouse. The matchup will be televised live on CBS.
