There’s never a dull moment in the Big 12. Two of the conference’s six top 25 teams square off when No. 24 Texas hosts No. 25 Baylor in a battle for positioning in the league standings. The Longhorns’ harassing defense held the Bears to a season-low point total in a road win at the beginning of the month.
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HOW THE BAYLOR BEARS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Two weeks ago the Bears were sitting pretty in the Big 12, at the top of the conference standings with a glossy No. 15 ranking. What a difference a few weeks makes. Baylor went through a stretch of three losses in four games, all starting with a home loss to Texas where the Bears were held to a season-low 59 points.
Baylor’s offense comes down to one stat. In their wins, the Bears average 22 assists per game. In losses, that number dips to 12.3. It’s really that simple. Baylor played two teams that press extensively – West Virginia and Texas – and the offense was shut down.
The Bears don’t have enough isolation players to win games consistently. Tuarean Prince has shown some ability, but has been significantly more successful in the catch-and-shoot than in iso. Rico Gathers has struggled to finish at the rim as teams are adjusting to his down low presence. Getting into an offensive flow is needed to crack the Longhorns’ havoc style defense.
A little patience will also go a long way. When the Bears hit a rough spell in games the leaders try to do too much to get the team out of their rut. Hurried shots on offense and missed assignments on defense were crucial during the teams slide.
HOW THE TEXAS LONGHORNS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Big 12 is the toughest conference in college basketball and it’s tough to win on the road. The Longhorns found that out first hand last week, dropping a pair of tough road games at Oklahoma and Iowa State.
Taking care of the basketball is a priority for Texas and the Horns have been exceptionally good at doing that this season. Limiting opponent possessions always is a plus and increases a team’s chances. Texas averages a conference-low 10.9 giveaways per game.
The Longhorns’ havoc defense was on full display when they defeated Baylor on Feb. 1. Texas held the Bears to 35.2 percent shooting and just 29.4 percent from beyond the arc, smothering Baylor into a season-low point total. Their defense wasn’t as stifling in a pair of losses last week and must get back to the style that coach Shaka Smart has made a living off.
The loss of Cameron Ridley left Texas short on size and often deficient on the glass, making Prince Ibeh one of the most important players on the roster. With Ibeh limited to 19 minutes by foul trouble against Iowa State, the Horns were outscored by 14 in the paint. Texas needs Ibeh to play as many minutes as possible to combat Baylor’s athletic front line.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
As if an opportunity to stay within striking distance of the conference leaders wasn’t incentive enough, the Bears also get a chance for some payback. Baylor played perhaps its worst game of the season in a loss to Texas on Feb. 1, getting shut down at home and clearly frustrated by the Longhorns’ defensive intensity. Baylor will employ a three-guard lineup using Lester Medford, Al Freeman and Ishmail Wright to bust the press and push the tempo. The Bears need to score points in transition to avoid the chaos Texas creates in its man-to-man defense. Baylor also has to exploit its advantage in the post with Gathers and Prince. The Longhorns small-ball lineup is used because they have no post options other than Ibeh. Texas has surprised a lot of people with their play this season, but this is a team that is still a year or two away from making a charge under Smart. I like the Bears to make adjustments and get their payback with a road win.
Baylor 71, Texas 65
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