Baylor and West Virginia have one thing in common: they both won at Iowa State in one of the toughest arenas in the Big 12. That has allowed both teams to stay at the top of the conference standings with the Mountaineers holding a one-game lead over Baylor.
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HOW THE BAYLOR BEARS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Take care of the basketball and pound the Mountaineers inside with their considerable size advantage in the post. That’s how the Bears can have success against West Virginia. Of course, that’s easier said than done.
The Mountaineers are relentless on defense and their patented full-court press has wreaked havoc on more than a few teams. The task of breaking the press will fall on senior guard Lester Medford, who averages 7.1 assists with just two turnovers per game.
After breaking the press, look for Taurean Prince and Rico Gathers to do damage down low. Baylor would like to turn this into a halfcourt game and use its two leading scorers to take over in the paint. The two combined for 38 of Baylor’s 59 points in Monday’s loss to Texas.
Gathers’ rebounding ability and outlet passes off the defensive glass will be important as well by not allowing the Mountaineers to set up their vaunted press. Baylor failed to match the intensity of Texas and will need to shoot the basketball much better than the 35.2 percent they managed against the Longhorns.
HOW THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
After surrendering 88 points and getting blasted by the Florida Gators last Saturday in the Big 12/SEC Challenge, the Mountaineers started Tuesday’s game against Iowa State slowly and fell behind by 15 points in the first half.
Then, West Virginia’s defense took over, silencing the Cyclones while chipping away at the disadvantage. Coach Bob Huggins made some adjustments and the Mountaineers cleaned things up enough to escape with a win in one of the toughest gyms in the Big 12.
A big story for WVU was the resurgence of Devin Williams, who looked shaky on offense, forcing some questionable shots and trying to force the issue when getting touches in the post. Williams was a rock early in the season before slumping, but he came up large with 17 points and 18 rebounds in what was easily one of his more impressive outings against a ranked opponent.
However, for the Mountaineers, their success hinges on how well they play defensively and forcing opponents into turnovers. WVU leads the nation in turnovers forced and those often end in easy buckets on the other end. If the D is on, the Mountaineers have a good shot.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Baylor was flat and failed to match the enthusiasm of the Longhorns on Monday. As a result the Bears fell out of a first place tie with Oklahoma and West Virginia. On the road in a frenzied environment, expect the Bears to play with more of a sense of urgency. They are, after all, going head to head with a team just above them in the standings. As I mentioned, Baylor needs to take care of the basketball against the frenzied pressure of West Virginia. If the Bears do that, half the battle is won. They have a mismatch in the frontcourt and will look to Gathers and Prince to take advantage of it. Baylor doesn’t get much production from its bench, relying heavily on the starting five to produce most of the offense. Staying on the floor and out of foul trouble is big. If the Bears do that, they can get the upset on the road.
Baylor 75, West Virginia 71
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