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A look at the records shows just how closely-matched Texas and Baylor are. The teams split the regular season series with each winning on the road and were separated by just one game in the Big 12 standings. Both teams are likely in the NCAA Tournament, but bragging rights are on the line in this quarterfinal conference tournament matchup.
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HOW THE BAYLOR BEARS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Baylor limps into the Big 12 tournament with losses in three of its past four games. A closer look tells us the Bears aren’t that far off. The Bears have actually played their best basketball over the past two weeks.
Success may not have come in the win column, but the Bears had late control against both No. 1 Kansas and No. 6 Oklahoma before faltering down the stretch. The three losses came by a combined 19 points with a blowout of TCU thrown in.
Rico Gathers is closer to full strength after dealing with an illness that cost him several games and limited his minutes in several others. His presence creates a big mismatch down low against Texas, whose only low post threat is Prince Ibeh.
The Bears took advantage of that mismatch when the teams met on Feb. 20, with forwards Taurean Prince and Johnathan Motley going a combined 17 of 23 from the floor with nearly all of those shots at point-blank range. Expect more of the same from Baylor.
HOW THE TEXAS LONGHORNS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
There’s a chance Texas may get some muscle back in the lineup just in time to face one of college basketball’s most imposing frontcourt players.
Cameron Ridley has been cleared to play and may see action for the first time since suffering a broken foot on Dec. 19. “We’re extremely hopeful and optimistic he’ll be able to play soon,” Texas coach Shaka Smart said of Ridley. His presence would help against Rico Gathers and the Bears, who ranked second in the regular season in rebound margin.
While Ridley is a maybe, Isaiah Taylor is definite, and he needs to be over the foot injury that limited him significantly over the final week of the regular season. The junior is averaging a career-high 15.0 points to lead the team. He’s also the assist leader at 4.8 per game, in addition to leading the Horns in steals and free throw attempts.
Texas made it through Big 12 play without Ridley, but the Longhorns can ill-afford to have Taylor at less than full strength. Not only is he valuable on the offensive side, he directs the team’s havoc-style defense that has confounded opponents.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
It may come as a surprise to some, but Baylor is one of the most efficient offenses in college basketball. The Bears rank No. 10 in adjusted efficiency, behind only Kansas and Iowa State in the Big 12. They shoot 47 percent from the field and 37 percent from three-point line, and have seven players who have scored at least 15 points in a game this season. The Longhorns are successful when their defense is dialed in. That wasn’t the case the last time the teams hooked up with Baylor shooting 62.7 percent from the floor in a 78-64 win in Austin. Baylor manhandled the Horns down low in that game and did it with Gathers limited to 15 minutes of action. Baylor should have their full complement of players and Ibeh can’t stop them all. Even if Ridley returns, his effectiveness and conditioning will be lacking.
Baylor 71, Texas 65
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