The UNC Asheville Bulldogs ended up getting a fairly easy route to the Big South Tournament Final. Sure, they had to get past top-seeded High Point, but the Panthers were playing without their best player. A bid will be punched to the dance come Sunday afternoon at the Pope Convocation Center, and it will either be UNC Asheville or the Winthrop Eagles strapping on their dancing shoes.
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HOW THE UNC ASHEVILLE BULLDOGS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Though UNC Asheville hasn't played the toughest road known to man to get here, no one can deny just how good it has been in the proceedings. Neither Liberty nor High Point really had much of a shot out of the gates against the potent defense which the Bulldogs brought to the table, and early turnovers turned into easy transition points in both games.
The formula doesn't have to change in this game for the Dogs. They're capable of forcing 20+ turnovers against anyone in America with the way they play pressure, man-to-man defense, and they pick up the full-court press time and time again after made shots.
When UNC Asheville loses though, it's generally because of problems on the offensive end. The defense can't get set if the offense isn't making shots, and if the Bulldogs get a little too three-point happy, they could be in some trouble. The Bulldogs are shooting just 32.5 percent from beyond the arc this year against 45.9 percent from the field in totality, two vastly different numbers. Much of that is due to easy points off of turnovers, and that's where UNC Asheville has to win this matchup.
HOW THE WINTHROP EAGLES CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Winthrop hasn't played its best basketball in this tournament to date. Gardner-Webb provided a much bigger challenge than it should have, and it should be noted that the 82-69 final score was nowhere near indicative of how close that game was throughout. The argument could be made that Eagles bettors were incredibly lucky to cover the spread.
The way the Eagles win this game is by pushing the tempo of the game and knocking down some outside shots. Keon Johnson, who was averaging over 20 points per game just a few weeks ago, only has 24 points in two games here in the Big South Tournament. That might cut it against teams like Presbyterian and Gardner-Webb, but it won't get the job done against a very underrated UNC-Asheville side hungry to reach the NCAA Tournament once again.
Do keep a really close eye on the other top scorers for the Eagles, Jimmy Gavin and Xavier Cooks. These men have both averaged over 20 points per game in the Big South Tournament, and anything less than 20 from either one would probably be a big cause for concern.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Bulldogs might only be 21-11 this year, but it’s time to realize that they're only a few bad breaks away from being a 25 or so win team. Nine of their 11 losses came by five points or fewer, including a one-point defeat at Winthrop just a couple weeks ago and a four-point loss at top-seed High Point. The latter of those losses was already avenged in a big way, and we think the Bulldogs are going to end up making amends in this one with the Eagles as well.
Score
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