In the second game of the Wooden Legacy Tournament, the Eagles and Spartans will meet for the first time in a decade as they play for the right to move on in the tournament. After beating Harvard on Sunday, the Eagles sit at 3-0, the same record for the Spartans as of November 23.
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HOW THE BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Boston College beat Harvard and the 4.5-point spread in a 69-56 win on Sunday. In the game, the Eagles got a nice 12-point performance off the bench from Ervin Meznieks, but the real saving grace for the Eagles who were out shot by Harvard from the floor, was the Crimson’s poor performance at the free throw line.
The Eagles cannot count on a Tom Izzo led team to have the same fundamental issues. For Boston College to cover the spread, they’ll need to shoot better from the floor.
On the young season, the Eagles are shooting just 44.8% on field goals, though they are much better behind the arc, ranking No. 27 in the nation, connecting on 41.8% of their long range shots.
Boston College will need to create open shots on the outside for the likes of Meznieks and guard Matt Milon, both of whom are shooting at least 50% from three-point range.
In addition, the Eagles will need continued strong ball control from guards Eli Carter and Jerome Robinson who rank first and second on the team in PPG and in assists. They’ve also combined for 12 steals.
HOW THE MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Izzo’s teams are always amongst the best in the best in the conference. They’ll be there again this year.
Through three games, the Spartans are undefeated and have dominated their weaker opposition, outscoring them by 26.3 PPG. The Eagles will give them a tough matchup, but Michigan State has a number of dual threat players that can get the job done at both ends of the court. They’ve also already beaten Kansas.
One of the Spartan’s key players is senior guard Denzel Valentine. Valentine is the only Big Ten player to rank in the top 15 in points, assists and rebounds. He averaged 14.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG and 4.3 APG.
In their last game on Friday, he scored just seven points, but did account for 11 assists and seven rebounds. That, however, was right off a triple-double where he scored 29 points, 12 assists and 12 rebounds in a win over the Jayhawks.
For the Spartans to cover the spread, they’ll need Valentine to have another big game as he is the team leader in most statistical categories. He’s joined by a number of strong players, however, including Bryn Forbes who is second on the team in scoring with 13 PPG—a little over three points per game fewer than Valentine—and forward Matt Costello whose 8.7 RPG is second only to Valentine’s 9.0 average.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Boston College is really good behind the arc, but the Spartans have shown the ability to defend the 3-pointer well, allowing just a 25.5% conversion rate.
Don’t look for the Eagles to be able to overtake the Spartans inside the paint. They have a strong defense, but the Spartans’ offense is too strong. Even if they are able to keep Valentine in check, that would come at the expense of others on the court that showed in their latest NCAAB game that they could easily step up and produce when the defense is all over Valentine.
Look for Michigan State to continue rolling on Thanksgiving, though Boston College’s stout defense should at least take a bite out of the Spartan’s offense.
Michigan State 74, Boston College 65
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