Wins against UAB, Virginia Tech and Creighton have advanced the Cougars to the National Invitation Tournament semifinals and a date with the No. 1 seeded Valparaiso Crusaders.
College Basketball Odds at BookMaker.eu
BYU Cougars +1.5
Valparaiso Crusaders –1.5
Over/Under 146.5
HOW THE BYU COUGARS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
BYU will go into the game as the slight underdog, but the Cougars have been playing great basketball throughout the first three games of the tournament, averaging 88.3 PPG and shooting just shy of 50-percent from the floor as well as 42.6 percent behind the arc.
Chase Fischer has led a group of five BYU players averaging double-digits with 22 PPG through those three games. Freshman Zac Seljaas is amongst them as well. Over his last eight games, he’s really burst on to the scene as an added threat to this lineup. He’s averaging 11.4 PPG and shooting 54.9 percent from the field.
In the three games in this NIT tournament, Selijaas has been even better than that, which has been a nice boost considering he averaged just 7.8 PPG during the year.
All in all, it’s the offense that could—and should—carry this team. They’re ranked sixth in college hoops with 84 PPG and thrive shooting both inside and out. The team is also ranked No. 13 in rebounds with 40.8 boards per game.
BYU also has a triple-double threat in Kyle Collinsworth who is averaging 15.2 PPG, 7.5 APG and 8.3 RPG.
The Crusaders’ defense could slow down the Cougars with the unit allowing just 62.2 PPG, but while they are third in college basketball in field goal percentage against, they’re a bit easier to score against from beyond the arc.
If BYU is to cover the spread, much of the production will have to come from its talented and deep backcourt.
HOW THE VALPARAISO CRUSADERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
While the Cougars thrive on offense, it’s the defense that’s carried Valparaiso in the postseason. The Crusaders are also a better rebounding team than BYU—though only slightly—ranked No. 5 in the nation with 41.6 RPG.
While the Cougars can own the backcourt, Alec Peters figures to lead the way for the Crusaders down low. He’s averaging 18.5 PPG and shooting 51.1 percent from the floor while notching 8.4 RPG.
Meanwhile, inside, the Crusaders don’t have the Fischer’s and Nick Emery’s of the world, but Keith Carter leads a group of four guards all averaging at least eight PPG.
While the Valparaiso defense will need to find a way to slow down a red hot BYU offense for the Crusaders to cover the spread, the Valparaiso offense will also need to come out of its box.
For that to occur, look to Peters to own the inside and for the Crusaders to look to him early and often.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Valparaiso needs this game to be a lower scoring affair. The BYU defense is not overly strong and doesn’t have the roster to compete in a defensive duel; a shootout on the other hand plays heavily into the Cougars’ favor.
Overall, look for something in between, but I don’t think the Crusaders’ defense will not be able to completely handle this red hot BYU offense that’s scored at least 80-points in four consecutive games.
Between Collinsworth, Fischer and the suddenly surging Seljaas, that’s just too much even for a stout Valparaiso defense.
With a razor thin spread in this one, ultimately whoever wins this game should cover the spread, but with this matchup so close and essentially being an offense versus defense battle, I’m going with the team that’s taking the points to cover the spread.
BYU 74, Valparaiso 69
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BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! The matchup between the Brigham Young Cougars and Valparaiso Crusaders will take place Tuesday, March 29, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN.
