Is the third time the charm for the Brigham Young Cougars against the St. Mary’s Gaels? After barely squeezing by Loyola Marymount, toppling the No. 2 seed in the West Coast Conference tournament doesn’t appear to be in the cards for BYU, but St. Mary’s should at least be a bit more challenged than they were on Saturday night when they cruised to an easy win over Portland in their first game of the conference tourney.
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Saint Mary’s should be the sizeable favorites against BYU. They went into their last meeting favored by 4.5-points and that was as the road team. They were 10.5-point favorites at home back in January.
Considered by most the only real competition for Gonzaga in this tournament, the Gaels are a stout defensive team with an excellent field goal percentage. Their slower pace of play, however, tends to lead to a lower scoring affair, both for them and their opposition. Keep that in mind when the total is release. Look for it to be suppressed a bit on the premise.
Last Meeting
St. Mary’s has the edge having beating the Cougars in both meetings this year, winning 81-68 at home and 70-57 on the road.
In their most recent win, that one coming on the road, the Gaels scored just 70, but shot 47.2-percent from the floor while holding the Cougars to a shooting percentage south of 40-percent. They were even better defending the three and when they forced BYU to the free throw line, the Cougars weren’t able to take advantage.
St. Mary’s did allow Eric Mika to score 18, shooting 7-for-14 from the floor and pushed him to the free throw line nine times, but they were able to quiet the backcourt with Nick Emery, Elijah Bryant and T.J. Haws combining for 23-points amongst them. Haws shot well, going 4-for-8, but Emery and Bryant were just 5-for-18 from the floor.
On the other side of the court, Evan Fitzner and Calvin Hermanson led the Gaels in scoring, shooting 6-for-15 and 5-for-12 from the floor respectively. Each also sank a few shots from beyond the arc.
In their previous meeting, it was again Mika who did all of the damage for BYU as St. Mary’s again kept the backcourt contained. They improved their ability to contain Mika between their first and second meeting, too, as he shot 12-for-17 the first time around with 28 points and 10 rebounds.
Look Ahead Situation
Having already beaten BYU twice this season, it’s reasonable to expect the Gaels to take this matchup for granted and look ahead towards its probable showdown with Gonzaga and then to the NCAA Tournament.
Doing so, however, could be troublesome for St. Mary’s as we’ve already seen the Cougars topple a top WCC team that let its guard down when they put an end to Gonzaga’s perfect season right as the Bulldog were turning their attention to the West Coast Conference Tournament and positioning for the Big Dance. The Cougars beat the Bulldogs 79-71 with the offense doing well against the strong Zags defense.
Don’t overlook the Cougars in this game. If the Gaels get too complacent, the Cougars could make it interesting. They’ve got enough offensive fire power and while their defense can be suspect, St. Mary’s doesn’t rely on its offense to get the job done.
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It looks like the Gaels may get their chance for a third try at overcoming Gonzaga, something that only the Cougars have been able to do this year. With the Bulldogs poised to beat Santa Clara in the other semifinals showdown, the Cougars would need another significant upset to topple Saint Mary’s. Of course, they did just that against the Zags a week ago, but can they pull off another major upset in such a short period?
In the end, St. Mary’s defense has proven itself against the BYU offense a couple of times and if it’s likely the BYU win over Gonzaga may actually help the Gaels to stay focused and not look to far ahead of themselves. St. Mary’s should get the win. Nevertheless, don’t look for a blowout. The Gael aren’t a huge offensive powerhouse and the Cougars can put points on the board when given the chance. In the end, a slower, more deliberate, pace of play will keep the score down and allow the Gael to win.
College Basketball Odds: Saint Mary’s 69, BYU 65
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