The Akron Zips are probably the only team in the MAC capable of pulling off an upset in the NCAA Tournament. However, in order to get there, they have to dispose of the Buffalo Bulls in the MAC Championship Game on Saturday night.
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HOW THE BUFFALO BULLS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Buffalo's defense isn't going to be good enough to slow down the Zips, so their way to a cover is going to be by flat out scoring.
UB isn't a great three-point shooting team at just 32.9 percent for the season, but you wouldn't know that with the way it has played here in Cleveland. The Bulls have already knocked down 25 threes in this tourney, including going 14-of-27 from beyond the arc against Ohio.
The Bulls are going to have to ride Willie Connor to the MAC title in this one. He's hit nine threes in two games in the MAC Tournament (after hitting just 34 in the entire regular season), and he's been good for 47 points combined in the two efforts.
Blake Hamilton has to come up huge as well. The big man knocked down four threes of his own against Ohio, and he's got 31 points and 21 rebounds in his two tourney games.
HOW THE AKRON ZIPS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Zips have to flat out hit some threes in this game. Akron averages just under a dozen threes per game, and when they're at their best from long range, they aren't beaten by many teams, particularly here in the MAC.
What really makes Akron's offense go though, is when Isaiah Johnson is dominating in the paint. He's the only man on the court who won't shoot a three for the most part, but Bowling Green found out what happens when too much attention is paid to the perimeter on defense. Johnson scored 23 points and had six boards in the MAC semis, and Akron went 9-of-24 from beyond the arc anyway.
Reggie McAdams is the senior leader of this team. He hit the shot that beat Eastern Michigan in the quarterfinals, and he followed that up with 14 big points against Bowling Green. McAdams isn't a fantastic shooter at just 43.5 percent, but he's a 42 percent three-point shooter and has had some big games this year in which he's caught tremendous fire. If he does that again on Saturday, the Zips will be dancing.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Buffalo did a really good job against Akron twice this year, losing the home game by just a bucket and the away game by 10, the latter of which was a 64-64 game with seven minutes to play. The Bulls are going to be getting a bunch of points in this game, and with the way things have gone thus far in conference tournaments for top seeds, we're not taking any chances.
Akron isn't as experienced as you'd like to see out of a basketball team this time of year, as it only has two seniors and two juniors out on a roster which goes eight men deep. We do think that it'll hit enough threes to win this game, but the duel will be touch and go throughout with the way UB has been playing offensively. Take the points with the Bulls.
Akron 78, Buffalo 75
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