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Villanova got the No. 1 ranking by default after all the others failed to win games as the top team in the country. That hasn’t been the case for the Wildcats, who have won six straight and own the most victories in Division I with 23. Butler gave them a scare last month before blowing a second half lead and losing by five.
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HOW THE BUTLER BULLDOGS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Butler can feel somewhat comfortable about its standing on the good side of the tournament bubble after knocking off Creighton on Tuesday night. The Bulldogs posted their 18th win of the year and moved to 7-7 in the ultra-competitive Big East. They now face a huge opportunity and even bigger challenge against No. 1 Villanova.
Butler’s 25th-ranked scoring offense will have to be clicking against the stingy Wildcats. The Bulldogs enter having scored more than 80 points in four of their last five games, all victories, and average 80.8 per game to lead the conference.
Another effort from distance like the Bulldogs had on Tuesday would go a long way toward giving them a chance to cover. Butler hit 13 threes and connected on 48 percent.
The teams met on Jan. 10 at Hinkle Fieldhouse with Butler leading for most of the game. A late second half collapse cost them a chance at victory. The Bulldogs lost by five with leading scorer Kelan Martin scoring just two points and the team hitting just 35.8 percent of its shots. Better results on the offensive end are a must.
HOW THE VILLANOVA WILDCATS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
They may not be the best team in the country, but Villanova has the No. 1 ranking and doesn’t appear to be letting go of it anytime soon. There is pressure playing as the top team in the country, but the Wildcats have embraced the responsibility of being ranked so highly.
The Wildcats are winning with a smothering defense that leads the Big East in field goal percentage, holding opponents to just 38.4 from the field. They also allow just 61.3 points per game to rank eighth nationally in scoring defense.
There are very few weaknesses on coach Jay Wright’s club, one of the reasons why they can beat a good Temple team on the road by 13 points even when their leading scorer Josh Hart scores only four points. There is always someone to pick up the slack when the leaders falter.
On Wednesday it was Jalen Brunson, who scored a season-high 25 points. The game before that it was Daniel Ochefu, who dropped 25 to help Nova fend off St. John’s. Their balance doesn’t allow for opposing defenses to key on any one player or take a part of the court away. Ryan Arcidiacono runs the offense expertly and keys a ferocious defense.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Butler would like to get in a shootout with the top defensive squad in the Big East. If the Bulldogs can do that, their chances of winning greatly increase. The Bulldogs are 12-0 SU and 9-3 ATS when scoring at least 80 points in a game this NCAAB season and have reached that mark four times in their last five games. They need leading scorers Martin and Kellen Dunham, who combine to average 32 points per game, to produce more than their 15 points total from the first meeting. Villanova is ranked No. 1 because of a superior defense. The Wildcats lead the Big East in field goal percentage defense and make life miserable for their opponents. They then put teams away with Josh Hart leading the offense. And don’t bother fouling the Cats. Collectively they shoot 77.5 percent from the stripe, fourth best in the country.
Villanova 73, Butler 63
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