The Gonzaga Bulldogs certainly have a lot to prove in WCC play this year. They're going to need to win a heck of a lot of games in conference play, and tripping against a team like the BYU Cougars could put them in a lot of trouble when it comes to their NCAA Tournament hopes.
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HOW THE BYU COUGARS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Cougs know they need a win like this to help out their own chances to dance, and their history suggests they're going to stick the onus on one man and let it rip. In this case though, this is going to have to be a complete team effort.
Chase Fischer, Nick Emery, Kyle Collinsworth and Kyle Davis are all double-digit scorers, and Zac Seljaas is a forgotten man who can really shoot the ball from anywhere on the floor.
It's Collinsworth who has to be the catalyst, though. He's a 6-foot-6 point forward, and though he doesn't quite shoot the ball like your typical swingman from the outside, think of him like Denzel Valentine. He averages 14.9 points, 7.9 boards and 7.5 assists per game, and he plays lockdown defense.
For our money, it's the job Collinsworth is going to do against Kyle Wiltjer defensively that is the true key here. If Wiltjer outplays Collinsworth in this one, the Cougars are going to be in a lot of trouble.
HOW THE GONZAGA BULLDOGS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
With Przemek Karnowski out for the season, Gonzaga is going to have to rely more heavily on its offense and less on its defense. Domantas Sabonis isn't the same type of defensive stopper that Karnowski was, but he's incredibly talented offensively, as shown by the 28 points and 17 boards logged against Portland over the weekend.
The men we think have to really play well are Kyle Dranginis and Josh Perkins. Perkins has had a real turnover problem this year with 38 in just 16 games, and if he's struggling, Dranginis is going to have to step it up. The Cougs will make the Zags pay if they turn the ball over too often, even here at home, and that's going to put a lot of pressure on the point guards to keep good tabs on the rock.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
We aren't really sure the Bulldogs are as good this year as they were last season, particularly knowing that they don't have Karnowski now for the rest of the year.
In this case, we think Collinsworth is going to have a heck of a game, perhaps even a triple-double. Throw in the rest of the superstars and the sometimes lacking Gonzaga defense, and it's clear to us that the Bulldogs are going to have to figure out how to outscore the Cougars.
That might work against San Francisco, Portland, Santa Clara, Loyola Marymount and Pepperdine, but it isn't going to work against a team which averages 84.8 points per game and can shoot the lights out of any gym in America.
Give us the points with the Cougars, and we wouldn’t be shocked if this game ended in an upset.
BYU 92, Gonzaga 88
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