No. 25 Cal is surging towards the top of the Pac 12 and the Bears travel to Tempe Saturday looking to beat up on Arizona State. The Sun Devils season has unraveled with four-straight losses to drop them to 4-12 and 14-15 overall with a postseason bid now in jeopardy.
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HOW THE CAL GOLDEN BEARS WILL COVER THE SPREAD
The Bears are rolling with seven straight wins heading into Thursday’s showdown at Arizona. Coach Cuonzo Martin’s team is balanced and winning with some strong defense ranking top-15 in adjusted efficiency and top-5 in effective FG defense. The Bears are the Pac-12’s best defense holding opponents to 40 percent FG including 31 percent from the arc.
Cal’s 7-foot freshman Ivan Rabb has been a disruptive force while scoring 12 points per game on 58 percent shooting with eight rebounds per game. Sharp shooting guards Jordan Matthews and Jabari Bird both knock down better than 40 percent from the arc and Bird hit 22-of-38 long range shots in February. The Bears leading scorer is freshman Jaylen Brown, who has been a top newcomer scoring 17 points per game with much improved shooting to rank No. 6 in the Pac-12.
Cal is last in the league in steals, but the Bears ability to control the boards and create open perimeter shots will lead them to this road win and cover.
HOW THE ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS WILL COVER THE SPREAD
It’s been a tough year for the Sun Devils and first year coach Bobby Hurley. Arizona State is 4-12 in Pac-12 play and only ahead of lowly Washington State. With four straight losses, the Sun Devils have fallen to 14-15 overall and currently outside of any post season berth.
A win Thursday over Stanford is needed as the Sun Devils will be a home ‘Dog in this one with Cal potentially playing for a share of the Pac-12 title.
Shooting struggles have hurt the Sun Devils as they are last in the league hitting just 40 percent from the floor and 35 percent from long range while taking the most three point shots in Pac-12 play. That’s a problem in this match-up as Cal boasts the league’s best 3-point defense allowing just a 31 percent success rate.
Combined with a negative rebounding margin and a seven boards per game differential against Cal, there’s not much that ASU can hang their hat on in this match-up.
The key for any shot at victory will be for the Sun Devils best three point shooters to get hot. Both Tra Holder and Kodi Justice hit better than 40 percent beyond the arc. Cal’s defense can suffocate you but they do not force many turnovers, so the Sun Devils will need hot outside shooting and a much stronger defensive effort as they’ve allowed 80 points per game in Pac-12 play.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Cal has been a pleasant surprise this season under coach Cuonzo Martin, and the Bears are playing their best ball on a 7-0 SU and ATS surge to move into the top-25 and push towards a potential co-league title.
The only thing preventing a solid road win and cover in this match-up is a potential letdown following Thursday’s big NCAAB game at Arizona. Check that result and stats along with Arizona State’s play against Stanford, but Cal likely gets the call and the season sweep after beating ASU 75-70 as 7-point chalk back on January 21.
Cal 79, Arizona State 70
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