The Oregon Ducks probably envisioned starting 2016 off on a better foot than they got onto on Sunday night. They were held to their worst offensive half and worst offensive game of the season against Oregon State, and they could find the sledding equally tough against what is turning into a really stingy California Golden Bears defense.
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HOW THE CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Golden Bears proved against Virginia that they can go on the road and compete with some great teams. Oregon might not be as great as it was once perceived to be, but this is a tourney team and one which is going to be able to make some noise if it gets there and gets a favorable draw.
California has to find a way to keep this game from getting too far out of control. The Ducks love to get out and run, and shooting threes in transition is their thing. We're going to talk more about the three-point shooting for the U of O in a moment, but if the Golden Bears can push this game to the inside in the half-court on both sides of the ball, they're probably going to be in good shape. They're holding teams to just 36.9 percent shooting from the field this year, and they've got an effective shooting percentage of over 51 percent as a team on offense as well.
Tyrone Wallace hasn't done a ton offensively of late, but as long as the combination of he and Jordan Matthews can put together around 25 points or so, that should be enough scoring to at least give the visitors a shot at the mild upset.
HOW THE OREGON DUCKS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Ducks only grabbed 19 of the 30 potential defensive rebounds available to them on the day against Oregon State, and that's what really limited their ability to get out and run. There aren't many better spot up shooters in the Pac-12 than Chris Boucher and Dwayne Benjamin, but the two combined for just 6-of-19 shooting against the Beavers. That won't cut it in this game.
Oregon doesn't need to hit 15 threes in this game to win, but it does need to take advantage of the weakness that is the perimeter defense of the Golden Bears. Ivan Rabb and Jaylen Brown are excellent interior defensive players, while Cal is allowing teams to shoot almost as well from beyond the arc (36.0 percent) as it is from inside the arc (37.9 percent).
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Ducks are going to be favored in this game, and they're probably going to be favored by a relatively decent margin as well. However, we don't see this working out for them, even at home.
We're really bothered by the way Oregon ran its offense against Oregon State, and for all intents and purposes, the Beavers are essentially Cal Lite.
The Golden Bears have covered five games in a row, and their only loss in that span was the one-point OT defeat at Virginia, a loss which no one would be ashamed of. Sure, it's a concern that Cal has only played two legitimate road games thus far this year, but this team is built to be able to grind out road wins in conference play, and we think it'll snare one on Wednesday night.
California 70, Oregon 61
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Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook! The matchup between the California Golden Bears and Oregon Ducks will go down Wednesday, January 6, 2016 at 9:00 p.m. ET at Matthew Knight Arena. The matchup will be televised live on ESPN2.
