The Golden Bears finally got back in the win column ATS on Saturday and will look to build off that with another win on Tuesday, but the competition will be tough against the No. 9 ranked Virginia Cavaliers.
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HOW THE CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
California has struggled against the spread all season long, but it’s playing a Virginia team fresh off a nice win against a fellow ranked team and could be primed from a letdown. In addition, the Golden Bears are also coming off a win both SU and ATS in their last game on Saturday, beating Coppin State 84-51 to cover the 32-point spread.
Coppin State and Virginia are as far apart in talent as you can get, but the win ATS is a good sign that the odds makers are getting a good grasp on the Bears’ talent level and that California is finally starting to perform near expectations.
There’s no doubt the Golden Bears will be up to play the Cavs. Look for them to play one of their best and most focused game of the season.
Statistically, California is a strong rebounding team with 42.3 RPG and does pretty well offensively with 77.6 PPG. On defense the team is good at preventing the open shots and has allowed an opposing shooting percentage of just 37.7 percent from the floor. That’s key for success against a sharp shooting Virginia team.
The two biggest things for the Bears to hang close with Virginia is for their defense to play up to par and them to beat Virginia on the boards.
Forward Ivan Rabb leads the Bears in rebounds with 8.5 per game and his joined by fellow forward Jaylen Brown and guard Tyrone Wallace each with at least 5.4 RPG.
If that trio can continue to reel in rebounds at both ends of the court, California has a chance, particularly when you consider the strong starting five who each averages at least 9.8 PPG led by Wallace’s 16.8 PPG average.
HOW THE VIRGINIA CAVALIERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Cavaliers topped Villanova on Saturday to win their eighth straight game. Their only loss of the year occurred on the road against George Washington.
Virginia is back home again on Tuesday and the team has won all four home games played this season, covering the closing number with relative ease in both home games with a published spread.
With an offense shooting 51.4 percent from the floor and a defense holding the opposition to just 58.9 PPG, Virginia is in a great position to not only beat California on Tuesday, but snag another ATS win as well.
After taking down a fellow ranked team on Saturday, playing the Golden Bears will be a nice little reprieve of sorts, provided they don’t have too much of a letdown.
In the backcourt, the Cavaliers are deep with talent, led by Malcolm Brogdon and London Perrantes. Brogdon leads the team in scoring with 17.2 PPG and is second in both assists with 30 and rebounds with 4.6 per game. Perrantes, meanwhile, is the team’s leader in assists with seven more than Brogdon and has 10 steals to go along with 11.5 PPG in his eight games played.
Over his last six games, Perrantes has scored at least a dozen points five times.
Perrantes is the better shooter than Brogdon, but Brogdon gets the most opportunities. Forward Anthony Gill, however, has a better shooting percentage than both, though he takes nearly all his shots from the post.
Gill is averaging 14.3 PPG and shooting over 60 percent from the floor. He’s also the team leader in rebounds with 6.5. The only real area of concern for the Cavs is on the glass. Gill is the team’s only major rebounder. Brogdon adds a few from the guard position and center Mike Tobey adds some height, but he’s rebounding only 4.1 loose caroms per game.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
California’s starting five is strong and should be able to hang with Virginia, but there’s a big drop off on the bench which could plague the Bears late as their starters begin to tire.
Look for the Golden Bears to hang close thanks to a strong defense and superior rebounding, but Virginia is still the better team overall and will be able to finish the game off much stronger than California. Add in the home court for the Cavs and that clinches this one for Virginia in a close game.
Virginia 77, California 72
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