A number of teams that just missed out on going to the dance fell in embarrassing fashion in the first round of the NIT. The Region 3 No. 1 seed Illinois State Redbirds didn’t follow suit after going out and handling UC Irvine with ease to remain undefeated as a host. Their 16-0 home record will however be challenged on Monday night when they welcome the No. 4 seed UCF Knights into Normal with a trip to the quarterfinals on the line.
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UCF isn’t known for putting points on the scoreboard, but that’s exactly what Johnny Dawkins’ squad did in their NIT opener against the Colorado Buffaloes. A game removed from dropping 84 points on Memphis, the Knights went for 79 against the Buffs. More importantly, the five point win saw them cover the closing 3.5 point spread to move to 4-2 against the spread in their last six overall games. Central Florida will look to build upon that triumph on the true road where they’ve covered each of the last two times when dogged.
Illinois State has been one of the best home teams in the country. However, its perfect record hasn’t translated into many wins for college basketball bettors with them entering Wednesday’s tilt with the Anteaters just 6-8 against the spread when in front of the hometown faithful. They hadn’t covered at home since handing Wichita State a 76-62 loss back in the middle of January. The win and cover versus UCI snapped a string of six straight losing efforts as home chalk. They’ll enter this one a game under .500 versus the linemakers as a host.
Key Stat
30.9% – The Redbirds love to shoot the 3-ball. In fact, you can argue that it’s the only reason the offense is even respected. Deontae Hawkins and company average draining 8.9 shots from beyond the arc when at home, and enter this tilt having just knocked 13 of them down against UC Irvine. Hawkins drained all six of his attempts. A hefty 37.1 percent Illinois State’s points come from downtown, so it’s safe to say the offense struggles when it runs up against a team that can defend the perimeter. That’s exactly what the Knights do with it only allowing a 30.9 percent success rate ( No. 19 ) and an average of just 7.2 makes per game when in the visitor’s role.
Player to Watch
Tacko Fall – The Redbirds do a pretty decent job on the glass with bigs MiKyle McIntosh and Phil Fayne combining for 12.1 rebounds per game. Hawkins gets in on the act with 6.6 of his own to allow for ISU to outrebound its foes by an average of 3.6 boards per game. Still, that pales in comparison to the rebounding prowess UCF brings to Normal with it outrebounding its opposition by better than 9.0 per game. Most of that damage is done by 7’ 6” center Fall who averages a hair under 10.0 rebounds per game himself. He and Nick Banyard form a formidable rebounding duo, so if the Redbirds are the least bit off in this one, it’s likely they won’t be getting many second chances.
Free College Basketball ATS Pick
UCF has played the tougher of the two schedules and enters this win or go home brawl winners of three straight on the road. Its offense looks to be in a scoring groove right now, and the defense has been a bear to break down all season long. Illinois State has been a major money burner in the home chalk role of late, and I fully expect it to get all it could ask for and more from a Knights squad that looks to be happy about partaking in this tournament. Look for this to be a back and forth slugfest from the opening tip and for it to not be decided until the game’s final moments. With that, I’d take the points and look for a low scorer if so inclined to get involved with this game.
College Basketball Odds: Illinois State 61, Central Florida 58
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