One of the more efficient offenses in the country will square off against one of the more efficient defenses in the semifinals of the AAC tournament on Saturday afternoon when the top seeded SMU Mustangs and No. 4 seed Central Florida Knights collide for the second time this season. These teams played to a competitive 65-60 final at UCF in their lone meeting that SMU won and covered by the slimmest of margins.
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Odds at BookMaker.eu
SMU opened as 8.5 point favorites for this neutral court clash with the Knights. There’s been no movement in terms of the betting line, but the Mustangs carry -115 juice. They closed as 4.5 point road favorites in the team’s regular season meeting and won the game by five.
After the Mustangs allowed East Carolina to drop 56 second half points in yesterday’s quarterfinal matchup, the betting public hit the over on the open bumping it up to 127.5 from the 126 opener. The regular season meeting combined for 125 points to just sneak under the 126 point closing total.
Key Stat
.2 – That’s what separates these club’s rebounding margins from one another. We’re dealing with two of the best rebounding teams in the nation with UCF checking in at 9.9 and SMU at 9.7. Those marks check in as No. 2 and No. 3 in the nation behind only top ranked North Carolina. Semi Ojeleye just had himself a monster game on Friday with 12 rebounds and 36 points to help lead SMU to the win. Tacko Fall averages just under 10.0 rebounds per game, while A.J. Davis averages 7.3. The duo combined for 16 in the 30 point thrashing of Memphis.
Last Meeting
SMU has dominated the recent rivalry winning each of the last six overall meetings and going 3-2-1 against the spread in those contests. They improved upon both records back in late January when they went into CFE Federal Credit Union Arena and pulled out the five point win and cover. A grand total of 18 free throws were attempted in the game. With both teams ranked amongst the top five at sending the opposition to the charity stripe, it’s possible a sub 20 tally is reached again today. UCF hung tough in most stat categories, but their 15 turnovers ultimately cost them the game.
Free College Basketball ATS Pick
After destroying East Carolina in a pair of regular season meetings and getting out to a 43-21 halftime lead in yesterday’s quarterfinal matchup, it was clearly evident that Tim Jankovich’s kids took their foot off the gas pedal in the second half. What led to the Pirates frenetic comeback was turnovers. SMU ended up committing 16 of them, and even though they shot nearly 61 percent from the field, they almost came back to bite them. It’s safe to say the tourney’s No. 1 seed will make it a point to take better care of the ball this time around against a UCF defense that forces less than 10 turnovers per game.
The Mustangs cost a number of bettors that blindly laid the heavy chalk with them yesterday due to them being covering machines in the regular season. When you pair that with UCF absolutely destroying the Tigers, the Knights will no doubt be one of the more popular underdogs of the day. I’m not buying it. Ben Moore and company got their wake up call in the quarters. Expect the team that’s destroyed almost everyone that’s gotten in their path to introduce itself to the XL Center.
College Basketball Odds: SMU 70, Central Florida 55
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