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Can the Connecticut Huskies once again shock the world by going on a run to make the NCAA Tournament? No one would be surprised by something like that happening at this point. The Huskies under Kevin Ollie have been able to go above and beyond at the end of the season but may face their toughest uphill challenge yet. UConn first must face one of the best teams in the country to close the season, the Cincinnati Bearcats, and then needs to run the table in an AAC that is stronger than usual this season.
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The Bearcats play extremely stingy defense, especially on the road. Under is 8-2 in Cincinnati games this season and this team knows how to shut down opponents on their home court. In their last four road games, the Bearcats held their opponent to 60 points or less, but that hasn’t led to covers. Cincy is 0-4 ATS over those last four road games.
The Huskies have lost three in a row and any chance of getting an at-large bid vanished with those defeats. UConn is now just a game over .500 and needs to win the AAC Tournament to get to the Big Dance. Seven of their last 10 games have gone over the total.
Key Stat
Cincinnati’s defense is insanely good and makes up for a mediocre offense. The Bearcats have one of the top defensive units in America, allowing opponents a slim 60.6 PPG and letting them hit just 38.2 percent of their field goals on the year. The defense has given them a chance to defeat very good teams, such as a road win against Iowa State, but the Bearcats also struggle to create offense and that can lead to some bad losses.
The Bearcats’ guards have extremely quick hands and that leads to deflections and steals. Cincy is averaging 8 thefts a game and those extra possessions have helped spark an offense that typically grinds down the clock. Additionally, this team is averaging 6 blocks a game, which further helps their numbers.
Player to Watch
It’s all about Jalen Adams for UConn. Adams has taken on a huge role for this team after the injuries to Terry Larrier and Alterique Gilbert, a role that many thought Rodney Purvis would fill. Purvis has been dramatically inconsistent from the floor though and that has given the chance for Adams to shine.
Adams is leading the team in both points and assists this season and is also pulling down 4 rebounds a night. He is being asked to do way too much as a sophomore and as the season has progressed, he looks to have worn down a bit. He hasn’t been able to crack 40 percent from the floor in each of his past four games and that has led to a 1-3 record.
Free College Basketball ATS Picks
When these teams squared off earlier in the year, it was all Cincinnati. The Bearcats cruised to a 14-point win on the night, despite the Huskies hitting 50 percent of their three-point attempts. Kyle Washington and Gary Clark were lights out for Cincy, combining to light up the Huskies for 47 points and these two shooters can’t have that type of success again if UConn wants to lock down a winning record this season.
This should be a close, relatively low scoring game where the winner is decided by just a few points. UConn will likely be a small dog despite being the home side, so grab the Huskies and the points.
College Basketball Odds: Cincinnati 67, Connecticut 64
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