Cincinnati jumped into the driver’s seat in the American Athletic Conference with a huge win at Connecticut and looks to hold onto its share of the top spot by beating Memphis for the second time this season. The Bearcats pulled out a 76-72 home win over the Tigers just over two weeks ago.
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HOW THE CINCINNATI BEARCATS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Cincinnati looks to build off its biggest win of the season and coach Mick Cronin acknowledged the significance of the Bearcats’ 58-57 win at Connecticut last week, which gave a big boost to Cincinnati’s NCAA tournament hopes.
But the Bearcats suffered what could be a big loss when forward Shaq Thomas missed most of the second half of the UConn game with an injured right foot/ankle. He was diagnosed with a bruise on his foot and a moderately sprained ankle. Thomas provides veteran leadership to the squad and is a tenacious defender. Cincy had some time off allowing Thomas some extra time to recuperate.
A good sign was that the Bearcats were able to beat the Huskies despite shooting only 38.2 percent from the field. Cronin has impressed upon his club the need to play defense, and as long as they do that, the Bearcats have a chance to win. The stifled the Huskies, holding them to 38.3 percent shooting. They will need to pick it up offensively, however, against the Tigers.
HOW THE MEMPHIS TIGERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
A perplexing loss to East Carolina two weeks back was one of three for the Tigers in a span of four games that dropped them from the top of the American Athletic Conference standings. Memphis had played well until that game and was close to the Bearcats on the road, losing 76-72 preceding its loss to ECU. “After how well we played at Cincinnati, I didn’t see this coming,” Tigers’ coach Josh Pastner said of the loss to ECU.
The Tigers need freshman forward Dedric Lawson to return to his early season form in order to get back to their winning ways. Lawson carried Memphis for stretches with his smooth game that’s produced eight double-doubles. And while he remains the favorite to win the AAC Rookie of the Year award, he’s shown signs of wearing down.
But to a man, the Tigers aren’t worried about Lawson, who after all is having one of the most productive freshman seasons of anyone in the country, averaging 14.4 points, 9.0 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 2.0 blocks per college basketball game.
A defensive breakdown cost Memphis in its loss at Cincinnati on Jan. 21. The Tigers have played solid defense for most of the season, but they allowed the Bearcats to hit half of their field goal attempts. That proved to be the difference in a four-point loss.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Memphis could be playing without senior wing Trahson Burrell, who was held out of the second half of last Saturday’s loss at SMU with what Pastner said was “internal discipline.” There’s been no further word on any punishment, but his absence and the struggles of Lawson, leave plenty of holes on the offensive side for the Tigers. With a crucial stretch of games upcoming, one of the last things Memphis needs right now is a lingering disciplinary issue with Burrell. Shaq Goodwin and Ricky Tarrant will have to shoulder more of the scoring load since the rest of the roster offers little help. Look for Cincinnati to clamp down on those two forcing someone else to beat them. And right now, Memphis doesn’t have anyone that can do that.
Cincinnati 69, Memphis 65
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