The Cincinnati Bearcats have gotten over their end of December woes by opening up 2016 with a win over Tulsa. Their first road test of the conference season will take place on Thursday against the undefeated SMU Mustangs.
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HOW THE CINCINNATI BEARCATS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Bearcats absolutely have to ugly this game up if they're going to have a shot at the cover. Even though Cincinnati ran Tulsa off the court on January 2, let's not forget that this was a team which was beaten by seven as an 11.5-point favorite at home against Temple just a few short days ago as well.
Cincinnati has a clear tell this year. When it allows more than 72 points, it is 0-3 SU and ATS this season. When it allows fewer than 70, it is 11-1 SU and 4-4 ATS.
How does "ugly" happen, though? The Bearcats have to shoot the ball well, and they can't let the Mustangs get easy points in transition. Cincinnati actually rebounded well against both Iowa State and Temple, but in both cases, it allowed double-digits in offensive rebounds. Second chance opportunities have to be limited as well, as SMU shoots the ball far too well as a team to be given second and third shot opportunities to put points on the board.
HOW THE SMU MUSTANGS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
It's easy to say that SMU just doesn't have to get bogged down in this game, but it's another thing for that to ultimately happen.
The Mustangs were only up 33-30 at halftime on Saturday against a bad South Florida team they were favored by 25.5 over, yet in the second half when the offense started to look a little more fluid, they were able to pull away.
We're a little worried about the fact that the Mustangs only really have eight men in their rotation at this point, and we really don't like the fact that Keith Frazier has gone completely missing in this lineup. He's a 6-foot-5 matchup nightmare for most teams, but he didn't even play against USF and has scored a total of just six points since December 22.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
This isn't the first time that the world is going to doubt Cincinnati on the road. The Bearcats were mild favorites at VCU, but most expected that game to end in an "upset" of a Top 25 team. Instead, UC took care of business in a 69-63 victory, one which might really propel it to good things on the road here in conference play.
The Mustangs haven't been sharp at home for bettors this year, and they're sure to be laying a lot of lumber in this game. However, we're just two or three triples by Farad Cobb away from this game becoming a lot more interesting than you might think.
Sure, if this game becomes a track meet, the Bearcats are going to get run out of town by the far more talented Mustangs. However, an in-game parlay between Cincinnati and the under makes a lot of sense and is clearly correlated.
Don't be stunned if this game stays in the 60s and the Bearcats pull off the shocker to hand the Mustangs their first loss of the year.
Cincinnati 64, SMU 61
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