No. 7 North Carolina hosts Clemson in the ACC opener, and the high-scoring Tar Heels are expected to roll, but Clemson’s slow pace could keep them from reaching their season average of 86 points per game which ranks No. 5 in the country. Clemson enters on a downer having lost two straight and three of its last four; all too SEC opponents.
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HOW THE CLEMSON TIGERS WILL COVER THE SPREAD
Clemson’s slow pace and 39 percent field goal defense may keep the game close, but the Tigers will still have a tough time slowing or keeping pace with the Tar Heels. Clemson averages 68 points per game in non-conference play which ranks No. 14 in the ACC. The Tigers are also a poor shooting FG team at 43 percent and also don’t get to the free throw line often enough where they only hit 67 percent.
The Tigers have taken 275 three-pointers which is second-most in the ACC, but hit a modest 35 percent from downtown. Donte Grantham and senior transfer point guard Avry Holmes are the best outside shooters, so if hot from the arc, the Tigers could hang around.
But poor rebounding and a lack of second-chance opportunities will make it tough if the shots aren’t falling from the outside. Jaron Blossomgame is a slender senior forward who scores 15 points with seven rebounds per game, and senior Landry Nnoko will have to use his big frame to bang the boards harder in this match-up if the Tigers plan to stay close.
HOW THE NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS WILL COVER THE SPREAD
North Carolina ranks No. 1 in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and the Tar Heels lead the nation in 2-point scoring at 52 points per game including nearly 60 per game over their last three contests with high-scoring victories.
They score 119 points per 100 possessions and the Tar Heels 1.89 assists-to-turnover ratio in non-conference play is the country’s third best since the 1996 season.
With big body Kennedy Meeks out the past two weeks with a knee sprain, senior forward Brice Johnson is the Tar Heels go-to player in the post. He’s scored at least 22 points in each of the Tar Heels last three games and pulls down over nine rebounds per game.
But the straw that stirs the drink is still senior PG Marcus Paige. He returned to the lineup following a broken hand and is hitting 48 percent from the arc while averaging 15 points per game through six contests with a 7-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. He’s dealing with an ankle issue so check his status.
This Tar Heels team is deep, talented and opened the season ranked No. 1.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Tar Heels will be laying a double-digit price and will need to reach their scoring margin of 15-points per game to cover this spread. These two teams opened ACC play last year on this court and the Tar Heels rolled to the 74-50 win on the back of a dominant rebounding edge and poor Clemson shooting.
With Meeks out there isn’t the dominant rebounding advantage, and the Tar Heels poor 3-point defense is a concern against a Tigers team that jacks up plenty of shots from the arc. But Clemson won’t be able to get close enough if their 3-point shots aren’t falling.
In Clemson’s non-conference game at Minnesota against an up-tempo Gophers team, the Tigers knocked down 14-of-28 three pointers and still lost 89-83. They make eight 3-pointers per game, but will need at least that many or this final will be another one-sided loss.
North Carolina 80, Clemson 66
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