After Christmas, the Huskies head to Texas for their first true road game of the season to oppose the Longhorns. Texas has won six straight home games, but are just 2-3 ATS on its home court.
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HOW THE CONNECTICUT HUSKIES CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Huskies are a strong statistical team, averaging 79.9 PPG and allowing only 65.1 PPG to their opponents.
UConn also boasts a 50.4 shooting percentage from the floor, ranking No. 10 in the nation in shooting effectiveness.
Individually, the Huskies are missing center Amida Brimah who is sidelined with a broken finger. The 7-footer hasn’t been overly dominant on offense, but has produced three blocks per game and a number of rebounds. Without Brimah down low, they’ll need a bigger game from Shonn Miller. The forward has scored at least 10 points in five straight games and gives the team a strong scoring presence inside the paint. He’s shooting 61.8 percent from the floor.
To help make up for the loss of rebounds by Brimah, guard Daniel Hamilton has played well, too, tallying 8.5 boards per game while also leading the team in assists with 54 and ranking second in scoring with 13.2 PPG.
Rodney Purvis and Sterling Gibbs add to a deep backcourt. Purvis leads the team in scoring with 15.1 PPG. He’s also coming off a 28-point performance against UMass.
If Purvis and Hamilton can dominate the backcourt and Miller can hold his own down low, the Huskies have an excellent chance of covering if not winning.
HOW THE TEXAS LONGHORNS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
With six straight wins, the Longhorns will enter play on Tuesday full of confidence and well rested as they’re last game was on December 19. The Huskies, on the other hand, play on December 23.
Texas beat the Huskies SU last season 55-54. They couldn’t do much offensively, but their saving grace was the ability to hold the Huskies to just over 30 percent shooting from the floor.
UConn’s offense is too good to expect a similar level of futility from the floor this time around, but Texas’s strength is still on defense.
For the Longhorns to cover the spread, they’ll have to neutralize the Huskies’ dynamic offense. On the season, Texas is allowing a meager 38.1 percent shooting from the floor. If the Longhorns can hold Connecticut close to that average, they’ll be in excellent position.
After all, Texas is the healthier team and should be able to compete well down low against a diminished Huskie frontcourt. Center Cameron Ridley has 9.7 RPG and forward Connor Lammert has 5.2 RPG which could give them an edge on the boards.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Longhorns’ biggest strengths are their ability to defend opponent’s shots with the No. 25 ranked opponent field goal percentage and their shooting from the perimeter. Texas is shooting 37.7 percent from behind the arc.
The Huskies, however, neutralize both strengths with a top-notch offense whose shooting percentage is one of the best in the nation and a strong backcourt that’ll cause issues for Texas.
Look for the Huskies to also win a close battle of the boards thanks to Hamilton’s rebounding skills from the guard position. With that, I have the Huskies getting the win in their first true road game of the NCAAB season.
Still, the loss of Brimah will be noticeable as they lose their height advantage inside. That should allow Texas to keep this one close.
Connecticut 76, Texas 70
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