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Considering the fact that two would-have-been-surefire NCAA Tournament teams in Louisville and SMU are on postseason bans, the bubble has stayed a little more open for teams to make big runs. The Creighton Bluejays were nowhere to be found in the discussion for the dance heading into Big East play, but all of a sudden, if they can beat the Xavier Musketeers on the road on Saturday to end the regular season, they'll have two wins over a potential No. 1 seed and have a resume which looks a little more complete.
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HOW THE CREIGHTON BLUEJAYS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Creighton is a tough team to gauge right now. The Bluejays were beaten down by Butler and Marquette, erasing all of the good work they did to get into the tourney discussion. Sure, they killed St. John's at home on Sunday, but who doesn't beat up the Johnnies nowadays?
We've seen the Jays win by 14 over Xavier, and we've seen them lose by 14 and 25 to Villanova. They scored 48 on Providence. They dropped 100 on St. John's, their fourth game of 100+ points this year.
Xavier went just 1-of-21 from beyond the arc in the first meeting of the year of these two teams, and that clearly isn't happening again. Instead, Creighton must rely on its offense to carry the load. Let's not forget that, for a team which has four men average double-digits in scoring and three more averaging at least six points per game, the Bluejays only got 38 points from men not named Mo Watson in the first duel.
There's room for improvement for sure, but it's tough see to Xavier playing as bad of a game at home as it did in Omaha.
HOW THE XAVIER MUSKETEERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
There have been some scary defensive moments for the X-Men in recent weeks. Allowing 90 to Seton Hall was probably overstated, knowing that the Pirates were desperate for that win to lock up a spot in the dance. However, if you just go back 45 minutes of game time, you'll see that the Musketeers have allowed 112 points. Yikes.
Since snaring a huge road win at Butler, Xavier has allowed 70+ points four times, albeit with three of those games coming against some of the top teams in the Big East. James Farr and Jalen Reynolds almost feel a step slow to the basket, and Trevon Bluiett amongst others are getting beaten on the ball out on the perimeter and aren't chasing well.
We know Xavier can score – six men with the ability to score 20 points in any given game tells us what we need to know from that standpoint. But what will make this team dangerous in March is the ability to get crucial stops and keep teams under 1.2 points per possession.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Xavier might be a weak 25-4, but 25-4 it is for a reason. The game at Creighton was largely considered to be a bit of a joke, and it really is the only victory the Bluejays have to hang their hats on. Perhaps if this game was to be played in Omaha, we'd feel a little different, but one of the best teams in Xavier history deserves to go out winning on its home floor.
The Musketeers will bring the pain defensively in this one, and though we aren't sure they'll shoot beyond 50 percent from the field, anything respectively in the mid-40s should be good enough to end Creighton's hope at an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament once and for all.
Xavier 82, Creighton 69
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