With the NCAA Tournament bubble encircling both teams, the Atlantic 10 matchup between the Dayton Flyers and Rhode Island Rams has added significance. The teams are separated by a game at the top of the standings, but gaining quality wins at this stage of the season is most important. Of course winning the conference tournament brings the automatic bid, but these clubs can’t count on that, so piling up as many victories as possible will give them a shot.
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When these teams met in early January, the Flyers were a 1-point home favorite and escaped with a 67-64 victory. It’s been a trend this season for Dayton as they’ve been money against the spread. The Flyers are 9-3 ATS in their past 12 games and 14-7 ATS overall, including a 5-1 mark in their six road games. But two of their five losses have come on the road in their past four away games. Dayton was upset at UMass as a 6.5-point favorite and lost at VCU but covered the 8-point line.
The Rams have been on a little ATS run of their own. URI won 70-62 at UMass on Tuesday, covering the 5.5-point line and is 4-0 ATS in its last four games. The Rams have been solid at home, going 11-1 SU and 7-4 ATS. Their only loss came a few weeks back when they were upset 87-75 by LaSalle. The Rams are also looking for some payback after blowing a second half lead and falling at Dayton in the first meeting.
Last Meeting
Rhode Island sits a game behind Dayton for the top spot in the A-10 and the Rams can look back at their first meeting with the Flyers and cry in horror at what might have been. URI held the lead for most of the game before letting it slip away while Dayton went on an 11-0 run in the middle of the second half to pull out the 67-64 win. The Rams got little in that game from Hassan Martin, the team’s second leading scorer. Martin took only five shots and scored seven points, his second lowest output of the season.
The Rams did plenty right in that game, enough to get a victory. But they sent Dayton to the free throw line for 26 attempts where the Flyers converted 17 times. The percentage wasn’t great, but URI hit just 10 free throws of their own and that was the difference. And Rhode Island really needs to win this game to improve its at-large tournament hopes.
Key Stat
Rhode Island doesn’t have the best scoring defense in the A-10, but they’ve been the best during their four-game winning streak. The Rams held UMass to 62 points in Tuesday’s victory and have limited opponents to 62.5 points per game in the last four outings. And because of the stingy effort, the under has cashed three times in those four games. A big reason for the defensive efficiency has been the play of Martin, who is a load in the middle. Martin registered three blocked shots Tuesday night and has eight during the current winning streak. He leads the conference with an average of 2.9 blocks per game.
The conference’s best defensive team is Dayton, which limits opponents to 63.9 points per game to rank 30th in the country. Their efficiency rating of 94.2 points per 100 possessions also ranks in the top 20 and has fueled the Flyers to first place in the conference.
Free College Basketball ATS Picks
Rhode Island needs this game badly, not only to climb into a first place tie with Dayton, but to also improve its standing as a bubble team. And the best thing for URI is that they get this one at home. The Rams led for 32 minutes when the clubs met earlier this season, only to squander the lead late and drop a heart-breaker in Dayton. URI knows it can play with the A-10’s top team, it just needs to close the game out this time.
If Martin shows up on the offensive end and continues to wreak havoc on defense, I see the Rams pulling this one out. Dayton has a nice inside-out game with Kendall Pollard and Scoochie Smith, and if the Flyers get Josh Cunningham back, they will have a big advantage in the frontcourt. Cunningham is close to a return, but his availability for this one is still in doubt. I like the Rams to get the victory after dropping a close one to the Flyers on the road a few weeks back, and the under looks like a smart play.
College Basketball Odds: Rhode Island 65, Dayton 62
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