Just a couple years removed from a run to the Elite Eight, the Flyers are back in the Big Dance for the third straight season. In 2014, they matched up with Syracuse and beat the Orange 55-53. They were a significant underdog in that game, but have the odds slightly in their favor this time around.
College Basketball Odds at BookMaker.eu
Syracuse Orange +1
Dayton Flyers -1
Over/Under 131
HOW THE DAYTON FLYERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Flyers have a nice balance inside and out behind Charles Cooke and Scoochie Smith in the backcourt and Dyshawn Pierre and Kendall Pollard up front.
All four players are averaging at least 10.6 PPG and as a team, the Flyers are shooting 46 percent from the floor and averaging three more PPG this season than Syracuse.
On defense, meanwhile, the Flyers are neck and neck with the Orange in terms of PPG allowed while winning the battle according to field goal percentage against as they’re allowing the opposition to shoot just 40.5 percent from the floor.
This team has a nice blend of talent assembled by coach Miller. Cook, Smith, Pierre and Pollard also all bring experience and a veteran presence to the team. They’re all juniors and seniors so they’re unlikely to be overwhelmed by the big stage.
As for the opposition, Syracuse gets an at-large bid despite dropping five of its last six games to end the season—it also lost to St. John’s by 12-points earlier this year. Its typically stout defense has also given up at least 72 points in three straight games.
HOW THE SYRACUSE ORANGE CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Some question Syracuse’s placement in the Field of 68, but as an average team in a power conference, it got the nod.
While the Orange don’t exactly inspire confidence this season, they certainly aren’t void of talent. Michael Gbinije leads the way in scoring with 17.8 PPG. The senior can be a difficult player for the opposition to match up given his ability to shoot inside and out.
In support of the senior, Syracuse has freshman Malachi Richardson sinking shots on the outside. He’s averaging 13.2 PPG. Meanwhile, the offense is run by Trevor Cooney. He’s averaging 12.8 PPG.
The backcourt of Cooney and Richardson and front court of Gbinije, Tyler Lydon and Tyler Roberson—along with solid shooting center DaJuan Coleman—gives the team a formidable starting five with a strong sixth.
Still, the question for this team is the offense. Gbinije has scored at least 17 in four straight games and eclipsed 21 in three of those. He’ll score, but can the Orange get some scoring from elsewhere?
The one thing you can usually bank on from the Orange: a strong defensive performance. They’re only allowing 65.7 PPG to the opposition and do a nice job preventing the open shot. They do particularly well defending the perimeter.
As for the opposition, the Flyers tend to put wins on the board, but have struggled ATS. They’ve only managed to cover the spread once in their last 10 games.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
In its 2014 run to the Elite Eight, Dayton knocked off Ohio State, Syracuse and Stanford. Last year, it upset Providence. This year, to advance to the field of 32, it doesn’t need to rely on an upset. Instead, it just needs to beat a Syracuse team that’s a far cry from the one it took care of two years ago.
Dayton is far from a perfect basketball team, but should get the win in the first round before a much tougher matchup against Michigan State this weekend.
Syracuse’s strengths are its defense and Gbinije. I look for Gbinije to have a strong game, but that likely won’t be enough. This team has folded of late and the once lauded defense hasn’t been nearly as good either. A team is more than one player and Dayton boasts the better all-around unit.
Don’t look for a big win, but a win is a win and with a one-point spread, Dayton should cover.
Dayton 68, Syracuse 65
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