Coach Mike Krzyzewski won’t be on the sidelines for his Duke Blue Devils for the next few weeks due to back surgery as his team enters a tough stretch. Following a tough road tilt at Florida State, Duke travels north to take on Rick Pitino and the Louisville Cardinals. Louisville knocked off Duke the last time these teams squared off and the Cardinals are looking to pick up a statement win against a Blue Devils side that is looking increasingly vulnerable. A Duke loss here would be a big blow to its hopes of winning a conference title.
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Duke is in real trouble after getting blown out on the road in Tallahassee against Florida State. The Blue Devils may have been without Amile Jefferson for the game, but FSU is typically a team that they defeat and a 16-point loss is indicative of other issues. This was Duke’s second straight double-digit road loss in conference play and the Blue Devils are now just 6-10 ATS on the season.
Louisville has one of the best defenses in the country so it’s no surprise that the Cardinals play a lot of games that go under the total. However, the under is almost untouchable in Louisville games thus far this year. The under is 11-2-1 in Cardinals games this season and 8-0 in games in the KFC Yum! Center. Only the game against Notre Dame has gone over in the past month of action and the Cardinals will be able to hold Duke under its season averages with their style of play.
Player to Watch
Grayson Allen will never be able to shed the label of dirty player after tripping more than a couple opponents, but there is no doubt he is extremely talented. Allen is the best pure scorer Duke has, despite the performance of Luke Kennard this season, and since his return from suspension he seems as if he is gun shy to shoot the ball.
Allen was second on the team in scoring before his suspension, but hasn’t been taking nearly as many shots after he came back from a one-game suspension for the Virginia Tech game. Allen has put up just 20 shots over his last three games and is instead focusing on setting teammates up. He notched his first ever 10-plus assist game against Boston College last week and is averaging almost 8 assists a night since his return. However, for Duke to win again, he needs to score.
Key Stat
Louisville’s defense remains one of the stingiest units in college basketball and the Cardinals are going to try to clamp down on the Blue Devils. This team is holding opponents to a hair over 60 PPG and is in the top three in defending, limiting foes to knocking down just 37 percent of their field goal attempts and 27.5 percent of their three-point attempts.
That defense was able to hold the high-flying Kentucky Wildcats to just 70 points a few weeks back and rebounding is a large part why. Pitino’s teams are always great at defense and rebounding and the Cardinals are grabbing 41.6 RPG this season.
Free College Basketball ATS Picks
Duke is not looking like the team any expert expected at the start of the year. The Blue Devils initially looked like a team that could outscore everyone it faced, but their offensive prowess has decreased in recent weeks. It’s hard to imagine Duke going 2-3 in ACC play, but Louisville is going to be a short favorite and will be the right side here with all the issues the Blue Devils are dealing with.
College Basketball Odds: Louisville 75, Duke 68
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