With Grayson Allen keeping his extremities to himself and Coach K back on the sideline, the Duke Blue Devils have put together a five-game winning streak, getting hot at the right time of the year. Duke won at No. 20 Notre Dame three weeks ago and has a shot at another road win over a ranked opponent when the Blue Devils take on the Virginia Cavaliers. The Cavs are going the other direction with losses in three of their last five games.
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It appears as though Duke is peaking at the right time, and it’s not too much of a surprise after Coach K returned to the sideline. But while the Blue Devils has collected five consecutive straight up wins, they have struggled to cover the lines, and Saturday’s game was no different. Duke failed to cover the 11-point spread in a 64-62 home win over Clemson and the Blue Devils are just 4-10 ATS in their past 14 games.
Once again Virginia has hit a wall late in the season and enters the Duke game having lost three of five, including a double overtime defeat to Virginia Tech on Sunday where the Cavs were a prohibitive favorite. There really are no easy games in the ACC, but losses to Syracuse and Tech aren’t the best for the Cavs. Toss in a defeat to Villanova, and the Cavs are searching for answers against a hot Duke team. But playing at home is an advantage and the Cavs are 10-2 at JPJ Arena with losses to West Virginia and Florida State by a combined 11 points.
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Duke relies on its starters more than any team in the ACC and the biggest of the bunch is leading scorer Luke Kennard. In the second half of Saturday’s win over Clemson, Kennard was the only Blue Devil who could score. During one stretch he scored 15 straight points and tallied 20 of his 25 in the second half to help the Blue Devils build a lead that they eventually held onto for the narrow win.
It was a letdown game for Duke, who spent a lot of energy to beat rival North Carolina just 48 hours earlier. But Kennard was up to the challenge and wouldn’t allow his mates to let this one get away. Kennard dropped 20 on UNC in the 86-78 win and has scored at least 20 points three times during the five-game winning streak.
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When Virginia excels defensively, they usually enjoy success in the win column. The Cavs possess the top scoring defense in the country, surrendering just 55.1 points per game and are undefeated when holding teams to fewer than 60 points. It’s when teams can run the floor and shoot the basketball where Virginia has problems. The Cavs aren’t going to light up the scoreboard so playing a frenetic style is what makes them work. And it’s worked under Tony Bennett.
London Perrantes is the only player to average double figures, tossing in 12.6 points per game, so the style has to work to be successful. UVA has surrendered an average of 71.0 points per game in its six losses and needs to use its 87.4 defensive efficiency rating to frustrate opponents. The Cavs have the third-best rating in the country and allow fewer than 50 points per game at home.
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Duke certainly has played better, at least in terms of wins and losses over the past few weeks. Their current five-game run followed a stretch where the Blue Devils lost three of four with a home defeat to NC State being a tough one to swallow. But the Dookies are a different team away from Cameron Indoor and they will be entering one of the most hostile environments in the ACC.
The Cavs apply relentless pressure and the Blue Devils aren’t a deep club. Coach K uses an eight-man rotation, but the three off the bench don’t supply a lot of minutes. This is a game where the Blue Devils will get worn down and the Cavs will pull away with their home court edge.
College Basketball Odds: Virginia 64, Duke 61
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