Since dropping out of the national rankings a few weeks ago, Duke has played like one of the best teams in the country. The Blue Devils ran their winning streak to five with an upset at No. 5 North Carolina on Wednesday and get another ranked foe in No. 18 Louisville, who the Dookies knocked off just two weeks ago.
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HOW THE DUKE BLUE DEVILS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
During last month’s losing skid where the Blue Devils lost three straight, four out of five, and fell out of the national rankings for the first time in a decade, they apparently learned one thing: how to win. Since that stretch Duke has won five straight, the past two by a single point against top-10 league opponents Virginia and North Carolina.
Playing in the Dean Dome, Duke’s roster full of youngsters proved it was tough enough to push through anything – a deeper and more experienced opponent, a tough road environment, even a bit of adversity in the form of an injury to one of its core players.
During their winning streak the Blue Devils are the team making veteran plays and defying the odds. At critical points in the game against UNC, the Blue Devils had four freshmen and one sophomore on the court, displaying toughness with youth that makes Duke a scary squad right now.
Duke faces another ranked foe on the road in Louisville, a team the Blue Devils beat 72-65 two weeks ago. They weren’t fazed by UNC and the Dookies are young enough to not realize they shouldn’t be winning these games.
HOW THE LOUISVILLE CARDINALS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Louisville won’t be playing in either the conference tournament or NCAA tournament this season, giving them five games left in the season. And all of them are important. The Cardinals bounced back from two crushing road losses last week, including one in Durham, by spanking Syracuse on Wednesday.
With no carrot at the end of the stick, Louisville’s postseason is now. The Cardinals went through all the emotions once the self-imposed ban was announced; the pain of graduate transfers Damion Lee and Trey Lewis not having the chance to realize their dream of playing for a national title.
That energy and frustration was taken out against Syracuse in a 72-58 win. The Cardinals have more boxes to check before their season ends. One of those is beating Duke, who the Cardinals lost to just last week at Cameron Indoor.
Defense is the key for Louisville. The Cardinals weren’t at their best last week, allowing the Blue Devils to convert on 44.7 percent of their shots. Over aggressiveness cost the Cards with Duke attempting 14 more free throws and converting 11 more. Controlled aggression is a better approach.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
It took some time and a few losses before Duke realized just how good of a team it is. The kids are growing up just in time for another NCAA tournament run. But, Duke’s depth was always a question and now even more so after guard Matt Jones went down with an ankle injury on Wednesday. Coach K used five players for a majority of the second half against UNC, and while it didn’t affect them in that game, you can bet it will at some point. Louisville will try and exploit Duke’s short bench by pushing the tempo, playing harassing defense, and rotating players throughout the contest. There’s also the revenge factor. The Cardinals didn’t play their best when they visited Durham two weeks ago and nearly escaped with a win. Not sending the Blue Devils to the free throw line should be a priority. Duke is a decent club from the stripe and it stops the game, giving them a chance to catch a breather. Louisville will be better in all areas.
Louisville 76, Duke 71
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