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Should the Duke Blue Devils really even be favored on the road against the North Carolina State Wolfpack on Saturday? The way they've been playing of late, it's certainly debatable. However, sharp bettors and the public alike will fully expect the Dookies to take out a team which just won its first conference game of the year earlier this week.
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HOW THE DUKE BLUE DEVILS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Blue Devils badly need to figure out how to adjust to like without Amile Jefferson. There's a chance that the big man could be out until the NCAA Tournament, if not for the rest of the season, and if Duke keeps playing like this, there's a legitimate chance that it could fail to make the dance.
We really think leadership on the court is the big problem at the moment. Statistically speaking, Marshall Plumlee has replaced Jefferson well, as the two men have comparable stats. The other problem though, is the fact that this bench is completely thinned out. The Blue Devils have had problems closing out games against conference foes because of this lack of depth.
The key to covering this game might be figuring out how to steal a few minutes here and there from its bench players. Derryck Thornton can't be the only man to come off this bench to be effective in this game, or the Blue Devils are going to be in a lot of trouble once again.
HOW THE NORTH CAROLINA STATE WOLFPACK CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Wolfpack have to take advantage of the lack of size the Dookies have on the court at any given moment. If they can figure out how to get Plumlee into some foul trouble, this game could be over early on.
Abdul-Malik Abu has three consecutive double-doubles under his belt, and we fancy him to have another one in this game with really only Plumlee to deal with. Lennard Freeman is coming off of a 14 rebound game against the Panthers, and he could make a real difference in this game as well off the bench.
But of course, NCSU can't win this game without Cat Barber going off. In Barber, we have a man who averages over 22 points per game. It's clear to see what he has to do just based on the way the Wolfpack have played in conference. Barber put up just nine points against North Carolina, and the Wolfpack were held to a total of 55. He's averaged 22.8 points per game in the rest of the ACC duels this year, and the team has averaged 74.0 points per game.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Wolfpack are much more dangerous than their 1-5 record in the ACC suggests, but we do think this is where the losing streak ends for the Blue Devils. They might only legitimately be six men deep, but these six are far superior talent-wise to those who will be on the other side of the court.
We expect to see Matt Jones rebound from three bad shooting games in a row, and this time when Duke is holding a lead relatively late on, we expect it to step on the gas pedal out of a timeout instead of trying to coast to the finish line. Having four days off in a row to get ready for this one should pay dividends to right the ship once again.
Duke 84, North Carolina State 74
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