Duke knocked off contenders Louisville and Virginia last week to put an end to its slump. Now, the Blue Devils look ahead to a showdown with ACC leader North Carolina in the Dean Dome. Another win puts the Dookies within a game of first place and that rough stretch from a few weeks back further in the rear view mirror.
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HOW THE DUKE BLUE DEVILS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Coach K’s kids are growing up and the wins are following. A stretch where the Blue Devils lost four times in five games is less than a month old and all but forgotten in Durham. Duke has won four straight since then with the last two against ACC heavyweights Louisville and Virginia.
The combination of freshman forward Brandon Ingram and sophomore guard Grayson Allen is working quite well. There’s not another duo in the ACC that scores as much as they do. It’s a challenge that not many other opponents present. Allen leads Duke in scoring 20.6 points per game and Ingram adds another 17.2 points.
The team has come to understand that the offense has to go through Allen and Ingram to win. Sometimes, though, they need reminders. The difference between now and earlier in the season is that Ingram and Allen feel confident enough to demand the ball.
Duke will continue to need Ingram and Allen to take over as Amile Jefferson’s return to the lineup looks more and more like it might not come until next season.
HOW THE NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Tar Heels were home for the first time in two weeks after a road trip that started with losses at Louisville and Notre Dame after an 8-0 ACC start. Getting back home helped everyone feel better. Sunday’s dominating win over Pitt eased some concerns and pressure that had built over that stretch.
The blowout win over Pitt featured some of the best offense we’ve seen from UNC in weeks. The key was great passing from everyone on the floor to create better looks. The Tar Heels have struggled shooting lately and rank last in the ACC from behind the arc in conference games. If they continue to move the ball and find the open shooter, that will improve and they will be tough to stop.
Having multiple offensive weapons makes UNC tough to defend and forces opponents to spend energy on that end of the court. That becomes more of an advantage against teams like the Blue Devils, who have a short bench. Justin Jackson is shooting the basketball better and is officially out of his slump. Marcus Paige will soon follow.
Carolina becomes that much more dangerous offensively when Jackson and Paige are making shots. They need to be accounted for on the perimeter and that helps keep spacing opened up inside for Brice Johnson.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Since falling from the national rankings for the first time in a decade, the Blue Devils have won four straight to creep up the ACC standings. The last three of those came at home where Duke is always tough. Going on the road against the conference leader is another story, and one that doesn’t end as well for the Dookies. Coach K continues to play his starters significant minutes and while it hasn’t affected them yet, it’s just a matter of time. Going against a club that pushes the pace and has the depth to do it successfully presents a big matchup problem for Duke. UNC has the talent and scoring depth to set the pace with Paige, Jackson, Joel Berry and Isaiah Hicks running the floor, and Johnson and Kennedy Meeks down low. Duke will hang close, but UNC will wear the Blue Devils down in the second half to pull away for a victory.
North Carolina 88, Duke 81
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