There aren't two greater rivals in college basketball than the Duke Blue Devils and the North Carolina Tar Heels. The Dookies are playing some of their best ball of the season and seem to have gotten over their mid-January swoon, but that doesn't mean they really have a good shot on the road in Chapel Hill on Wednesday night.
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SCHEDULING
Many pointed to the schedule for the Blue Devils as a potential sticking point in their season, but with a tough schedule comes opportunity. Duke has cemented its place in the NCAA Tournament as we see it by beating both Louisville and Virginia at home, and a win here in Chapel Hill would be a massive boost and give it a legit chance to still capture the ACC regular season title.
North Carolina ended its three-game ATS skid by beating up Pitt at home on Sunday afternoon, proving that it wasn't looking ahead to this game. Live bettors should be aware that this is a huge week at home for the Tar Heels, as they get both Duke and Miami. Win both games, and the ACC regular season title is basically on lockdown.
KEY MATCHUP
On paper, this looks like a really tough matchup for Duke. The Blue Devils aren't particularly deep, and they aren't particularly big either. This is the first time in a while that they've gone against a team with three legitimate big men who can score. Brice Johnson, Kennedy Meeks and Justin Jackson are all at least 6-foot-8, and they're all averaging double-digits in scoring, combining for just under 40 points per game.
Let's not forget as well that Isaiah Hicks and Theo Pinson could play big roles as well, and Joel James has had his moments, too. That's a lot of big boys who can both shoot and hit the glass, and we know that Marshall Plumlee isn't going to be able to keep up with all of them.
It's inevitable in this game that UNC is going to have a big edge on the glass. The question is whether the Blue Devils are going to hit enough shots from the outside to make that rebounding margin a lot smaller. Grayson Allen, Matt Jones, Brandon Ingram and Derryck Thornton are going to have to hit a lot of shots from the outside, knowing that going to the inside against this North Carolina defense generally isn't advisable. If the Blue Devils can shoot 50 percent in this one, they'll have a good shot to cover. Otherwise, live bettors will have a tough time finding track on the boys from Durham.
KEY STATS & TRENDS
The under has been a popular cash of late for both of these teams. This is typically an over series, as it isn't out of the ordinary for both teams to score in the 80s, but live bettors need to temper themselves. Duke has played four of its last five games under the total, including playing both of the games at home this weekend at least 10 points shy of the over. UNC has played four straight unders and seven out of eight since its total topped out at 167 against Wake Forest.
Duke has won the last three and five of the last six in this series, but live bettors should be ready for this game to be relatively close to the spread. There hasn't been a game which finished further than 10 points away from the spread in this series in four straight.
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