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The Duke Blue Devils won and covered their second round tilt with the Clemson Tigers, but hardly looked impressive. Their reward for doing so now has them matched up against the No. 4 seed Louisville Cardinals with a trip to the ACC Tournament semifinals on the line. The Cardinals won the lone meeting between these teams with ease, so Coach K’s kids better put forth a much better effort to avoid dropping a third straight game to the Ville.
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The Dookies covered Tuesday’s game against the Tigers by the slimmest of margins. In fact, they won the game by the exact amount to get the job done. In doing so, they snapped a string of five straight games of not beating the linemakers. Believe it or not, but this game will mark the first ever that Duke went off the betting board as ACC tourney underdogs. It’s warranted however with the team just 12-18-1 against the spread overall, and tallying just five pointspread covers in conference play.
Like many of the top end teams in the ACC, Louisville had all kinds of problems winning games away from the home hardwood. The Cardinals won 24 of their 31 overall games played with 16 of those wins coming in the comfort of their own gym. It was a different story on the road however with Rick Pitino’s troops splitting their 10 played games and covering at a 4-4-1 clip in the nine lined games. It did however win three of its four played neutral court tilts and split them against the spread.
Player to Watch
Amile Jefferson – The Blue Devils ability to control the game depended a ton on the senior being on the floor. When he was on it, he greatly limited the Tigers from attacking the glass in pulling down a team-high 10 rebounds with four coming at the offensive end of the court. When he was out due to foul trouble, Jaron Blossomgame and his mates had a much easier go of it collecting loose caroms. If the Dookies are to compete with the Redbirds on the glass, they’re going to need Jefferson on the court as much as possible. Keep an eye on his health as well as his foul tally. If forced to go to the bench, it will likely allow the Cardinals to attain some breathing room on the scoreboard.
Last Meeting
Luke Kennard, Jayson Tatum and Grayson Allen did their best to thwart the Cardinals in the team’s first meeting, but it proved to not be enough. Though the trio combined for 51 points, the Cards balanced scoring from Anas Mahmoud, Raymond Spalding, Quentin Snider and Donovan Mitchell was just too much to overcome. Both offenses were efficient shooting the basketball with the Blue Devils knocking down 46.8 percent of their shots and the Cardinals 47.5 percent of theirs. The determining factor was 18 costly turnovers committed by Duke that allowed the Ville to take 12 more shots. Most notable however was that the Blue Devils hung tough on the glass only losing the battle of the boards 31-30 without the services of Jefferson who missed the game due to a nagging foot injury.
Free College Basketball ATS Pick
With Grayson Allen pretty much gone missing for the better part of the last month, the Blue Devils are a three man show. While it’s a formidable trio and they can win any game if Kennard gets hot, I just don’t foresee it holding up against a much deeper Louisville squad. Louisville forced them to commit 23 fouls earlier this season, and if either Tatum or Jefferson gets into foul trouble, Duke will get destroyed on the glass. If they go out and knock down a crazy clip from long range against one of the best overall defenses in the country, so be it. I’ll be betting against it and firmly expect Louisville to march onto the semifinals.
College Basketball Odds: Louisville 82, Duke 74
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