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The Duke Blue Devils and North Carolina Tar Heels possess two of the most storied programs in college basketball history. We’ve already seen Mike Krzyzewski and Roy Williams collide twice this season, but as the basketball gods will have it, we’ll get one more matchup in the semifinals of the ACC tournament when the No. 5 and No. 1 seeds lock horns with a trip to the championship game on the line.
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The Tar Heels opened up as 3 point neutral court favorites for this semifinals tilt with the total set at 156.5. After destroying a game Miami Hurricanes squad in the quarterfinals, the betting public has taken an early stance on North Carolina betting them up to 3.5 point chalk with 85.5 percent of the tickets written supporting them. There’s been no line movement with the total, but you can be sure to see it rise a bit with both regular season meetings combining for an average of 168.5 to cash over tickets easily in both contests.
UNC failed to cover both of its games when installed 3-4 point favorites this season against Indiana and Virginia, while Duke fell to Louisville 78-69 the only time it was installed an underdog in that range back on January 14.
Key Stat
When Duke beat the Tar Heels at home earlier this season, it did so by shooting at a high clip from the field and winning the rebounding battle 31-29. That was huge for Coach K’s squad considering UNC checks in as the No. 1 rebounding team in the country with a +12.2 rebounding margin. In the rematch, Duke only shot 44.4 percent from the field and got outrebounded 34-26 with 11 of the Tar Heels’ boards of the offensive variety. Not even Duke, or anyone in the country for that matter, would survive against North Carolina if it gives it’s potent offense numerous second chance scoring opportunities. That’s something Jayson Tatum and company will have to improve upon if it’s to upset the tourney’s top seed.
Player to Watch
Grayson Allen – The Dookies controversial shooting guard put forth one of the worst performances of his life against Clemson on Wednesday with 0 points scored on 0-4 shooting. He only saw 12 minutes of action due to picking up a punishable technical foul midway through the first half. Instead of pouting, he came up big versus Louisville in scoring 18 points and connecting on 2 of 3 shots from beyond the arc. He played a key role in the Blue Devils 86-78 win in the first meeting with 25 points on the back of a 7 of 12 showing from downtown. Duke will need someone else to step up so as to lessen the pressure on Luke Kennard to carry the team offensively.
Free College Basketball ATS Pick
Duke has partaken in two games through the first three days of this tourney. In both games, the Blue Devils looked down and out and on the verge of being sent home. However, Coach K made some brilliant adjustments either at the break or on the fly, and because of it, the Dookies completely changed the course of the game to ultimately come out on top. They can get away with that against teams like Clemson and Louisville, but it can’t against a powerhouse like the Heels.
UNC has had all kinds of trouble in this rivalry lately in winning just two of the last seven overall meetings. They amassed just a pair of covers over that stretch and was only able to push as 7 point favorites last Saturday at home. That said, I expect for the likely No. 1 seed in next week’s NCAA tournament to come out fired up and take it to their most hated rival to win the season series and punch their ticket to the title game.
College Basketball Odds: North Carolina 93, Duke 83
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