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A return to Rupp Arena, where the Wildcats have yet to lose this season, should be welcomed after a pair of losses. Kentucky blew a 21-point lead at Tennessee on Tuesday, dropping consecutive games for the first time in nearly two years.
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HOW THE FLORIDA GATORS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Florida possesses a top-10 defense that has carried the team all season long. As the Gators scuffled through the first four weeks of SEC play, the question that bubbled was: What if the Gators could score? Sure, they dropped 95 on Auburn a few weeks back, but that doesn’t count since the Tigers give that up to the local high school team.
But Saturday was a different story. The Gators walloped the best defense in America and won by 17 points, knocking off West Virginia 88-71. Press Virginia got worked by a Florida team that has scored 80 points or more in four of its past five games.
The formula for victory in basketball is simple. Force stops and score buckets. The latter had been a problem for Florida. But its effort against the Mountaineers showcased the difference between a team that shot 33 percent inside the arc in a one-point loss to Vanderbilt and the team that recorded 1.26 points per possession against the relentless pressure of WVU. If this becomes a trend, Florida could be a problem for the SEC down the stretch.
HOW THE KENTUCKY WILDCATS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
It looked like Kentucky was ready to turn a corner and morph into the team many expected following the game at Kansas last Saturday. The Wildcats weren’t given much of a chance to win at Allen Fieldhouse, but they took the No. 4 Jayhawks to overtime before bowing. They played a solid, disciplined game in a hostile environment and the kids held up well.
But a stunning loss to Tennessee on Tuesday after blowing a 21-point lead, prompted coach John Calipari to say, “we’ve got a ways to go.” It’s been one step forward and two steps back for the youthful Wildcats.
Tyler Ulis and Jamal Murray continue to play stellar basketball and make up the best young backcourt in college hoops. But the pair needs help and the frontcourt isn’t supplying it. Someone among Alex Poythress, Marcus Lee and Skal Labissiere needs to take control of owning the paint. Ideally, for coach Cal, all three would do that. Each one has, at times, shown glimpses of greatness, but too often they’re just average or below.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
For a young team that should be improving as the season progresses, Kentucky appears to be headed in the opposite direction. The loss to Kansas was expected, but losing at Tennessee. And blowing a 21-point lead to boot. That is concerning to Calipari. The Wildcats again showed a lack of discipline committing foul after foul and getting outscored 30-18 by the Vols at the free throw line. Everyone who played was whistled for at least one personal foul, Ulis and Poythress both fouled out and three others had three fouls. Foul trouble forced the Wildcats to be less aggressive on both ends of the court and the 12-point margin at the foul stripe was the difference in the game. That aspect of the game was strikingly similar to what happened at Kansas. I don’t expect the same results when the Wildcats return home. If they are allowed to play and not handcuffed by fouls, Kentucky’s talent should be able to subdue the Gators.
Kentucky 87, Florida 81
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