The Florida Gators are on the right side of the NCAA Tournament field for sure, but most of the experts agree that they're going to need at least one more signature win somewhere along the way to lock up that spot in the field of 68. They'll have an opportunity on Saturday on the road against the Kentucky Wildcats.
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SCHEDULING
Kentucky has to be happy to be back at home after losing games at Kansas and Tennessee. The Wildcats have had all sorts of problems on the road, but here at Rupp Arena, they've been a heck of a lot better and have been borderline unbeatable. In their last six home games, they've gone 5-1 ATS, and their one ATS loss was against a huge number against Mississippi State. Live bettors might be overwhelmed by these last two losses for a team which has surely underachieved, but it's worth remembering that this is a much better team at home than on the road.
It's also worth remembering that this is a bad scheduling spot for the Gators. They just got off of home games against West Virginia and Arkansas, and they've got home dates against Ole Miss and Alabama on the horizon. This is the second time we've seen UF play one random road game in and amongst a ton of home games. The Gators punted that game against Vandy, and live bettors need to keep in mind that this is the same bad spot they were beaten in before.
KEY MATCHUP
The Gators quietly have a really good defense, particularly out on the perimeter, but their guards are often outplayed by a healthy margin.
Normally when you talk about the Wildcats, you talk about the power and depth in the frontcourt. In this case though, it's Jamal Murray we think could be the massive difference-maker. Murray has been on a three-point rampage of late, and he's averaging almost three triples per game.
The Gators just don't have a guard who can counter this type of production if Murray is at his best. Of course, Murray works in tandem with Tyler Ulis in the backcourt, but Ulis can be effective both on his own and with his big men. Florida will have the answers for Alex Poythress, Derek Willis and Isaiah Briscoe. What it won't have an answer for is Murray if he really goes off. That's the key man live bettors really need to watch out for on Saturday.
KEY STATS & TRENDS
The Wildcats allowed 84 and 90 points in their two road games in the last week against Kansas and Tennessee, but here at home, there really hasn't been such a game in quite some time. Missouri and Vandy before that managed just 54 and 57 points.
Though Kentucky's defense isn't nearly what it has been in recent years, it's not like allowing 68.3 points per game is all that bad, especially when you consider the fact that the Wildcats have been so much worse on the road than at home defensively.
Florida is a really strong 12-6-1 ATS this year, including going 5-2 ATS on the road. The good news is that its last two losses have both been by really small amounts, one point at Vandy and three at Texas A&M. A loss by a similar margin in this one would almost certainly give live bettors during the first half a victory. Another close call here is going to be a distinct possibility.
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