The LSU Tigers have a resume of a team bound for the NIT this season. However, they've got two big things on their side at this point. They've got arguably the best player in the nation in Ben Simmons, and they've got a lot of opportunities to beat tourney teams the rest of this season. Perhaps their biggest chance for a signature win comes on Saturday at home against the Florida Gators.
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HOW THE FLORIDA GATORS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Gators laid the groundwork for how to beat the Tigers in the first meeting of the year. For all intents and purposes, they tried to take everyone else out of the game while allowing Simmons to dominate.
UF has already proven that it can overcome a game in which Simmons had 28 points and 17 boards, but if the rest of his teammates don't come along for the ride, Baton Rouge could end up being a really quiet place on Saturday night.
With Keith Hornsby out of the fold with a sports hernia that could end his season, the Tigers didn't get a single point from their bench in a loss to Arkansas, and if the Gators can continue to play hardnosed man-to-man defense without doubling up on Simmons, they're probably going to go on the road and win this game.
HOW THE LSU TIGERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
LSU has hit the skids hard at this point, as these last three losses have been disastrous. What this team is missing is the contribution from a fourth scorer. Tim Quarterman and Antonio Blakeney can both put points on the board in a hurry, and we all know that Simmons is always a triple-double threat, but Craig Victor has gone relatively quiet of late, and Jalyn Patterson isn't a scorer and is really only a help defensively.
However, the real key is the lack of defense. A team like LSU shouldn't be getting blown out by 20 when it scores 65 points, but we've seen this defense digress game after game. The Bayou Bengals allowed Arkansas and Tennessee to each get in the 80s against them, and those two teams shot 54 and 50 percent from the field respectively.
If that's the way LSU is going to play defense in this game, forget about even remotely wanting to bet on it.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
We're at the point that we want to see the Tigers have to win this game. They're probably not winning at Rupp Arena to end the regular season, and they're probably not winning the SEC Tournament in a couple weeks, so their best hope is to pick off the Gators, then beat them - or a comparable foe - again in the SEC Tournament.
Anything less is the setup for the nation's best big man playing in the NIT.
Teams which should make the NCAA Tournament tend to rise up in spots like this, but LSU, in our eyes, isn't a tourney team. Florida isn't great, and it hasn't been playing great basketball of late either, but it takes good care of the basketball and is typically very efficient defensively.
It's only going to take a good game instead of a great one to give the Gators the win.
Florida 73, LSU 66
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Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here, so starting betting with BookMaker today! The matchup between the Florida Gators and the LSU Tigers will go down on Saturday, February 27, 2016 at 8:30 p.m. ET at the Pete Maravich Assembly Center. You can watch the game live on ESPN.
