Yet to drop a game, the Spartans are set to host the Gators on Saturday. It’s the first meeting between these two teams since 2009 when Michigan State squeezed out a narrow 77-74 victory.
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HOW THE FLORIDA GATORS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Spartans may be undefeated SU and they may be 6-2 ATS, but those two losses came in Michigan State’s last four games.
Florida has a strong defense ranked No. 13 in the nation, allowing just 59.6 PPG and outscoring the opposition by an average of 14.6 PPG.
The Gators will need to lean on their defense to keep the Spartans’ offense at bay and allow them to stay in the game. For that to happen, the team needs big games from their big men in Dorian Finney-Smith, John Egbunu and Devin Robinson. The trio form a solid front court and each are rebounding north of 7.8 per game.
Of course, with Michigan State having dynamic guards, the chore of defending them will fall to Kasey Hill and KeVaughn Allen.
Another key is guard Chris Chiozza. He had a nice showing in his freshman year and has shown a bit of improvement with added playing time early in 2015. He’s not a starter on the team, but when going against Denzel Valentine in the backcourt, you need as much depth as you can get.
HOW THE MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Florida enters off its second loss of the year, dropping the game against Miami 66-55 as six-point underdogs.
While that could be a motivating factor for the Gators, it’s also a bad sign going into Saturday where they’ll take on a Spartans’ team ranked No. 15 in the nation defensively. Of course Michigan State’s offense is strong, too, averaging 82.4 PPG and shooting nearly 50 percent from the floor.
Florida is also on the road again. The Gators have dropped each of their last two games away from Gainesville both SU and ATS.
The Spartans are always amongst the best teams in the nation and while in a seemingly down year for most of last year, they still managed to find their way to the Final Four. This team is even better than that one.
The back court is the best part of Michigan State’s team. Denzel Valentine and Bryn Forbes offer a dynamic one-two punch. Of course, the team’s not exactly thirsting for height and talent down low. Deyonta Davis and Matt Costello are each averaging over six rebounds per game.
Interestingly, Valentine is the team’s leader in rebounds with 8.8 per game. He’s also tops in assists with 71, steals with seven and points with 19.7 per game. Forbes is the team’s second highest scorer while Davis and others also provide points.
Davis adds to the team’s dynamic defense, too, with 20 blocks. He’s a big part of the opposition failing to average over 60 PPG.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Gators have a solid team with good talent, particularly up front, but I don’t think it’s enough to upset the Spartans.
Michigan State is undefeated for a reason and Florida failed to cover against Miami for a reason, too.
With both NCAAB teams boasting defenses ranked in the top-15 in the nation, this should be a lower scoring affair, but the depth of Michigan State’s roster and the early play of Valentine have me believing in Tom Izzo’s crew once again.
Michigan State 73, Florida 67
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