Things are really going to have to break the SEC's way to get more than three or so teams in the NCAA Tournament. The Florida Gators think they're going to have a shot to dance, but games like these against the Tennessee Volunteers on the road in conference play are landmines which are tough to avoid.
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HOW THE FLORIDA GATORS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Gators are only turning the ball over 10.1 times per game this season, and they really have to take good care of the basketball in this one. Their guards in particular have been very good taking care of the ball, as both Kasey Hill and Chris Chiozza have had good, yet not spectacular seasons thus far for the Gators.
However, both Hill and Chiozza are merely caretakers of the ball. Neither are good shooters, and if either gets a little crazy putting the rock in the air, this game could get out of hand.
The Gators really need to work the ball down in the paint. Dorian Finney-Smith, John Egbunu and Devin Robinson are all fantastic forwards who can play with their back to the basket, and they have to take advantage of a somewhat undersized Tennessee front line.
HOW THE TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
If the Gators have to make this a big man's game, the Volunteers have to make it a guard game. The Vols have four men averaging double-digits in scoring, and all four of them are 6-foot-4 or smaller. Granted, Armani Moore plays a heck of a lot bigger than his 6-foot-4 frame suggests, but he's still going to be undersized.
Meanwhile, Robert Hubbs III and Kevin Punter are going to be the keys. Statistically speaking, Punter is the most important player on the team for UT. He's shooting 51.1 percent from the field and is averaging 22.8 points per game. However, more practically, the pressure is going to be on Hubbs.
It's obvious that Punter is going to get his. He's scored at least nine points in every game this season and at least 20 points in 10 of the 13 games which he has played.
Hubbs though, is the great difference-maker. He hasn't played all that well since he returned from a late-November knee injury, averaging just 8.8 points per game since that. However, he scored 13 points against Auburn and might've turned the corner just a little bit for the rest of his season. If he can get in the high-teens or 20s in scoring, the Volunteers should have a really good scoring balance from their top teams.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Florida's offense isn't all that great, especially if it can't get anything going on the inside. The Volunteers have the much better guard play in this game, and the Gators are going to be forced into the very tough decision of who to take off the court if they want to matchup with all of the smalls the hosts will put on the floor.
If the Gators had a little bit more of an identity offensively, we think they'd be in better shape here on the road in the SEC. These two teams aren't separated by all that much as we see it, and the fact that the Vols are likely to only be short favorites in this game is good enough for us.
Tennessee 77, Florida 68
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Don’t miss out on getting paid because you couldn’t bet. Click here and deposit at BookMaker now! The game between the Florida Gators and Tennessee Volunteers will go down Wednesday, January 6, 2016, at 7:00 p.m. ET at Thompson-Boling Arena. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN2.
