The Florida Gulf Coast Eagles were horribly under-seeded by the Selection Committee. They were clearly improperly forced to go to Dayton for the First Four, and they probably should've been on the No. 15 line for the second time in their history. Many will remember the magic they pulled two years ago when they made the Sweet 16 as a 15, and many will also recall just how good they looked against Fairleigh Dickinson on Tuesday night, but this game against the North Carolina Tar Heels is a completely different ball of wax.
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HOW THE FLORIDA GULF COAST EAGLES CAN COVER THE SPREAD
When FGCU went on its run two years ago, it did so by getting the crowd to believe that it could pull off that upset early on. Threes were falling. Fast breaks were ending in dunks. And the rest, as they say, is history.
Against North Carolina though, there will be no such thing as a home court advantage. Even if the Eagles did go ahead early, the crowd in Raleigh will be incredibly pro-UNC. The pressure, as amazing as it is, would shift back to the shoulders of the Eagles if this game turned out to be close.
The key men are going to be Christian Terrell and Marc-Eddy Norelia. Those two men were huge against FDU on Tuesday, and they've been the leaders for this team all year long. Terrell has had four straight games with at least 14 points, while Norelia has double-doubles in four of his last five games.
HOW THE NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Tar Heels have to keep the pace of this game high, but they have to make sure they don't lose their identity either. They've got big men who should be able to dominate against a team which will only put one man on the court bigger than 6-foot-7 for the most part, and that size should result in a huge advantage on the glass and in the paint.
FGCU isn't a great three-point shooting team, but forcing it into a ton of outside shots will be crucial. Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks could both have double-doubles in relatively short periods of time if that turns out to be the case.
Offensively, it's all about just being calm and not turning the ball over. Marcus Paige has been playing some of his best basketball of a relatively poor season, but he can make amends for it here over the course of the next few weeks. He's the type of player who can be a difference-maker without scoring, and he'll have the ability to have one of these quiet, yet effective games on both sides of the court to push the Tar Heels over the top.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
We've said this before this week, but this is another one of these games where it's probably going to be trendy to take the points. It's not usual this time of year, but after a season in which there was so much parity, especially after seeing how well the Eagles played in the First Four, there's going to be a sentiment that maybe – just maybe! – this would be that first time a No. 16 beat a No. 1 seed.
News flash: It isn't going to happen.
Maybe against a team like Villanova or Virginia the Eagles would have a shot, but we just don't see it here against the most talented team in the country. Florida Gulf Coast will very likely end up getting run up the floor, and bettors are going to find that out the hard way.
North Carolina 96, Florida Gulf Coast 69
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Don’t miss out on getting paid because you couldn’t bet. Click here and deposit at BookMaker now! The game between the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles and North Carolina Tar Heels will go down Thursday, March 17, 2016, at 7:20 p.m. ET at PNC Arena. The game will be televised nationally on TBS.
