Entering this week, Joe Lunardi has both the Syracuse Orange and the Florida State Seminoles heading to Dayton for the "First Four," meaning they're amongst the last four teams safely into the NCAA Tournament field. You can bet that a win on Thursday for one of these clubs will really help shape their resume going forward for the rest of the season with a 'W' against a fellow bubble-dweller.
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HOW THE FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Just the fact that FSU is in this spot is a testament to the atrocious coaching job Leonard Hamilton has done with this team this season. The Seminoles have Top 25 talent and have badly underachieved.
However, over the course of these last four games, albeit against some of the lesser competition in the ACC, the Noles have looked more like the team which started the year ranked in the Top 25. They're getting production from their bigs, and they're playing better defensively than they have at any point over the course of the season.
The key to covering this game is going to be keeping the big man engaged. You can break a 2-3 zone without getting contributions both from the outside and on the inside. If both are working, Syracuse can lose its defensive form quickly as it scrambles all over the perimeter trying to keep up with the ball.
That means Dwayne Bacon, Boris Bojanovsky and Montay Brandon all have to work their way into the painted area and get some easy buckets to help setup the three-point shooters. FSU only knocks down 34.1 percent of its threes because it often settles for poor shots. That shot selection is going to be crucial in this game at the Carrier Dome.
HOW THE SYRACUSE ORANGE CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Syracuse has been hot as well, going 6-1 in its last seven games overall. However, the team did just play an overtime game against Virginia Tech over the weekend, and at some point, fatigue could come into play on a roster which basically only utilizes seven men.
Since the start of 2016, the Orange have more or less gone offensively as Trevor Cooney has gone. Cooney has scored 22 points or more three times in his last 10 games, and in that span, Syracuse has averaged 79.0 points per game. In the seven games in that stretch which Cooney scored 14 or fewer, the Orange have been good for just 63.3 points per game.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Perimeter defense has been a big problem for Florida State all year long, and we think that fact is going to come back to bite it once again in this game. The Seminoles have one legit big time road win this year, that coming at Florida, and it has comparable losses at Clemson, Miami and Louisville as well.
The Orange know the importance of this game, and they know they've played significantly better with Jim Boeheim back on the bench than when they were without him for nine games in the middle of the NCAAB season.
One of these teams is heading to the dance for sure this year, while the other is going to be hanging on tight for a spot and will likely end up in the NIT; it'll be clear which one is which when these 40 minutes are up.
Syracuse 78, Florida State 66
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